** WTIO20 FMEE 250012 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 980 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 80.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST ) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 12 UTC: 12.9S / 79.8E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/02/26 AT 00 UTC: 13.4S / 79.4E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT .. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDS FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 250012 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 25/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 009/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 25/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (CARINA) 980 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.3S / 80.3E (DOUZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGTS DEGRES TROIS EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 130 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST ET LOCALEMENT DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. TEMPETE 50 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 25/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 12.9S / 79.8E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 26/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 13.4S / 79.4E, VENT MAX = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CARINA CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER REGULIEREMENT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT ASSEZ FAVORABLE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE ASSEZ LENTE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, ET UNE INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE. LE GRAND FRAIS S'ETEND ASSEZ LOIN VERS LE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 250015 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/25 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 80.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 12.9S/79.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 13.4S/79.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 14.0S/78.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 14.5S/78.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 15.0S/77.6E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 15.6S/77.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5+ CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK WINDSHEAR). THE SYSTEM SHOWS AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN OVER THE SIX LAST SAT PICTURES. POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTERLY. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 250012 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 25/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 009/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 980 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 80.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST ) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 12 UTC: 12.9S / 79.8E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/02/26 AT 00 UTC: 13.4S / 79.4E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT . THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDS FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 250015 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/25 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3S / 80.3E (TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 12.9S/79.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 13.4S/79.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 14.0S/78.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 14.5S/78.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 15.0S/77.6E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 15.6S/77.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5+ CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK WINDSHEAR). THE SYSTEM SHOWS AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN OVER THE SIX LAST SAT PICTURES. POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTERLY.=