** WTIO20 FMEE 241814 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 985 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 80.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 06 UTC: 12.6S / 80.1E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 18 UTC: 13.1S / 79.6E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT . THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDS FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 241814 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 985 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 80.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 06 UTC: 12.6S / 80.1E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 18 UTC: 13.1S / 79.6E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT .. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDS FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 241814 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 24/02/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 008/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 24/02/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (CARINA) 985 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.0S / 80.6E (DOUZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET QUATRE-VINGTS DEGRES SIX EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 5 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 250 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST ET LOCALEMENT 350 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. TEMPETE 50 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 25/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 12.6S / 80.1E, VENT MAX = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 25/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 13.1S / 79.6E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CARINA CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER REGULIEREMENT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT ASSEZ FAVORABLE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE ASSEZ LENTE VERS LE SUD-OUEST, ET UNE INTENSIFICATION REGULIERE. LE GRAND FRAIS S'ETEND ASSEZ LOIN VERS LE SUD EN RAISON DU GRADIENT AVEC LES HAUTES PRESSIONS SUBTROPICALES. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 241814 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 008/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 985 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 80.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STORM FORCE WINDS AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 06 UTC: 12.6S / 80.1E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 18 UTC: 13.1S / 79.6E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IN A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT .. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDS FAR IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 241834 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 80.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 06 UTC: 12.6S/80.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 13.1S/79.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 13.7S/79.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 14.2S/78.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 14.7S/78.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.2S/77.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAKER WINDSHEAR). ITS PATTERN FLUCTUATES ; FROM A CURVED BAND PATTERN, THE SYSTEM SHOWS AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN OVER THE LAST SAT PICTURES. FOR NEXT RANGES, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO TRACK IN A RATHER WEAK ENVIRONMENT IN UPPER LEVELS. POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTERLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 241834 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 80.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 06 UTC: 12.6S/80.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 13.1S/79.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 13.7S/79.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 14.2S/78.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 14.7S/78.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.2S/77.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAKER WINDSHEAR). ITS PATTERN FLUCTUATES ; FROM A CURVED BAND PATTERN, THE SYSTEM SHOWS AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN OVER THE LAST SAT PICTURES. FOR NEXT RANGES, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO TRACK IN A RATHER WEAK ENVIRONMENT IN UPPER LEVELS. POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTERLY. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 242100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 11.9S 80.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9S 80.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 12.6S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 13.2S 79.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 13.6S 78.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 14.5S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 80.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 555 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO THE EAST OF TC 14S WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A 12- TO 24-HOUR PERIOD OF STRONG INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS INTO A REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//