** WTSR20 WSSS 240600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 241218 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 987 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 81.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST ) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 00 UTC: 12.2S / 81.0E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 12 UTC: 13.0S / 80.7E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 6 TO 12 HOURS AND UNDERGOING VERY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A RAPID INTENSIFICATION.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 241218 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 24/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 007/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 24/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (CARINA) 987 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.6S / 81.1E (ONZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES UN EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 2 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 130 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 220 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST ET LOCALEMENT 350 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 25/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 12.2S / 81.0E, VENT MAX = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 25/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 13.0S / 80.7E, VENT MAX = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME "CARINA" CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER REGULIEREMENT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT EST FAVORABLE. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-OUEST D'ICI 6 A 12 HEURES ET TROUVER DES CONDITIONS TRES FAVORABLES A UNE INTENSIFICATION PLUS RAPIDE. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 241218 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 007/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 987 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 81.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST ) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 2 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LOCALLY UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 00 UTC: 12.2S / 81.0E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 12 UTC: 13.0S / 80.7E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 6 TO 12 HOURS AND UNDERGOING VERY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A RAPID INTENSIFICATION. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 241224 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 81.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 00 UTC: 12.2S/81.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 13.0S/80.7E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 13.6S/80.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 14.1S/79.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 15.0S/78.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 15.6S/77.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.5- THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY : UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). DURING LAST NIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ONE UNDER AN EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT. SINCE 0500UTC, WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 8 TENTHS BANDING ON INDOEX SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200UTC. SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONNARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 3 MID-LEVEL ACTION CENTERS. AT 500HPA, HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-EAST SHOULD MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS BUT IT IS BLOCKED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGHS IN THE SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO EVCUATE EASTWARDS AND TO PERMIT THE SYSTEM SHIPPING SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 6 TO 12 HOURS. SY STEM SHOULD UNDERGO FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A BUILDING GOOD UPPER POLARWARD OUTLOW CHANNEL.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 241224 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 81.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 00 UTC: 12.2S/81.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 13.0S/80.7E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 13.6S/80.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 14.1S/79.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 15.0S/78.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 15.6S/77.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.5- THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY : UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). DURING LAST NIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ONE UNDER AN EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT. SINCE 0500UTC, WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 8 TENTHS BANDING ON INDOEX SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200UTC. SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONNARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 3 MID-LEVEL ACTION CENTERS. AT 500HPA, HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-EAST SHOULD MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS BUT IT IS BLOCKED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGHS IN THE SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO EVCUATE EASTWARDS AND TO PERMIT THE SYSTEM SHIPPING SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 6 TO 12 HOURS. SY STEM SHOULD UNDERGO FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A BUILDING GOOD UPPER POLARWARD OUTLOW CHANNEL. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 241235 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 81.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 00 UTC: 12.2S/81.0E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 13.0S/80.7E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 13.6S/80.2E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 14.1S/79.6E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 15.0S/78.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 15.6S/77.5E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.5- THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY : UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). DURING LAST NIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ONE UNDER AN EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT. SINCE 0500UTC, WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 8 TENTHS BANDING ON INDOEX SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200UTC. SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONNARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 3 MID-LEVEL ACTION CENTERS. AT 500HPA, HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-EAST SHOULD MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS BUT IT IS BLOCKED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGHS IN THE SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO EVCUATE EASTWARDS AND TO PERMIT THE SYSTEM SHIPPING SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 6 TO 12 HOURS. SY STEM SHOULD UNDERGO FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A BUILDING GOOD UPPER POLARWARD OUTLOW CHANNEL.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 241235 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 81.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 00 UTC: 12.2S/81.0E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 13.0S/80.7E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 13.6S/80.2E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 14.1S/79.6E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 15.0S/78.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 15.6S/77.5E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.5- THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY : UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). DURING LAST NIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ONE UNDER AN EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT. SINCE 0500UTC, WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 8 TENTHS BANDING ON INDOEX SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200UTC. SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONNARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 3 MID-LEVEL ACTION CENTERS. AT 500HPA, HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-EAST SHOULD MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS BUT IT IS BLOCKED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGHS IN THE SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO EVCUATE EASTWARDS AND TO PERMIT THE SYSTEM SHIPPING SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 6 TO 12 HOURS. SY STEM SHOULD UNDERGO FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A BUILDING GOOD UPPER POLARWARD OUTLOW CHANNEL. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 241347 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 81.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 00 UTC: 12.2S/81.0E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 13.0S/80.7E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 13.6S/80.2E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 14.1S/79.6E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 15.0S/78.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 15.6S/77.5E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.5- THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY : UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). DURING LAST NIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ONE UNDER AN EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT. SINCE 0500UTC, WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 8 TENTHS BANDING ON INDOEX SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200UTC. SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONNARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 3 MID-LEVEL ACTION CENTERS. AT 500HPA, HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-EAST SHOULD MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS BUT IT IS BLOCKED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGHS IN THE SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO EVCUATE EASTWARDS AND TO PERMIT THE SYSTEM SHIPPING SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 6 TO 12 HOURS. SY STEM SHOULD UNDERGO FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A BUILDING GOOD UPPER POLARWARD OUTLOW CHANNEL.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 241347 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 81.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 00 UTC: 12.2S/81.0E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 13.0S/80.7E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 13.6S/80.2E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 14.1S/79.6E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 15.0S/78.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 15.6S/77.5E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.5- THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY : UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). DURING LAST NIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ONE UNDER AN EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT. SINCE 0500UTC, WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 8 TENTHS BANDING ON INDOEX SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200UTC. SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONNARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 3 MID-LEVEL ACTION CENTERS. AT 500HPA, HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-EAST SHOULD MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS BUT IT IS BLOCKED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGHS IN THE SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO EVCUATE EASTWARDS AND TO PERMIT THE SYSTEM SHIPPING SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 6 TO 12 HOURS. SY STEM SHOULD UNDERGO FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A BUILDING GOOD UPPER POLARWARD OUTLOW CHANNEL. .