** WTIO20 FMEE 240623 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 993 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4S / 81.4E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/24 AT 18 UTC: 12.8S / 81.8E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 06 UTC: 14.0S / 81.1E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY, ASSOCIATED CLOUD CLUSTERS NOW SHOW A BETTER ORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 240624 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4S / 81.4E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/24 18 UTC: 12.8S/81.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/02/25 06 UTC: 14.0S/81.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 15.1S/79.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 15.7S/78.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 16.1S/78.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 16.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.0- THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BUT SLOWLY: UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). LAST SSMI F15 AT 0258UTC AND TRMM AT 0122UTC MICROWAVES IMAGERY SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 6 TENTHS BANDING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 240623 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 24/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 006/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 24/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (CARINA) 993 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.4S / 81.4E (ONZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 130 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQUE 250 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 24/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 12.8S / 81.8E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 25/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 14.0S / 81.1E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME "CARINA" S'INTENSIFIE LENTEMENT, LES AMAS NUAGEUX ET ORAGEUX ASSOCIES S'ORGANISENT PROGRESSIVEMENT. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-SUD-EST DANS LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES PUIS VERS LE SUD-OUEST, EN S'INTENSIFIANT REGULIEREMENT SOUS L'EFFET DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 240623 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 006/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 993 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4S / 81.4E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/24 AT 18 UTC: 12.8S / 81.8E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 06 UTC: 14.0S / 81.1E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY, ASSOCIATED CLOUD CLUSTERS NOW SHOW A BETTER ORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 240624 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4S / 81.4E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/24 18 UTC: 12.8S/81.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/02/25 06 UTC: 14.0S/81.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 15.1S/79.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 15.7S/78.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 16.1S/78.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 16.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.0- THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BUT SLOWLY: UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). LAST SSMI F15 AT 0258UTC AND TRMM AT 0122UTC MICROWAVES IMAGERY SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 6 TENTHS BANDING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. . ** WTIN20 DEMS 240730 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 24-02-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 09 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPS31 PGTW 240900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KATE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 11.3S 146.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 146.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 11.0S 145.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 145.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KATE) HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN AN UNFAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND HIGHER THAN EXPECTED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 10 FEET.// ** WTXS32 PGTW 240900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (CARINA) WARNING NR 003 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 11.4S 81.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 81.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 12.2S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 12.7S 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 13.2S 79.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 13.8S 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 81.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (CARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A RIDGE SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT LESS THAN IDEAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//