** WTSR20 WSSS 231800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 240026 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 993 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 81.7E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 300 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/24 AT 12 UTC: 12.2S / 81.5E, MAX WIND = 40 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 00 UTC: 12.5S / 81.2E, MAX WIND = 50 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA. THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY, ASSOCIATED CLOUD CLUSTERS NOW SHOW A BETTER ORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 240026 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 81.7E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/24 12 UTC: 12.2S/81.5E, MAX WIND=040KT. 24H: 2006/02/25 00 UTC: 12.5S/81.2E, MAX WIND=050KT. 36H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 12.9S/80.9E, MAX WIND=055KT. 48H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 13.0S/80.4E, MAX WIND=060KT. 60H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 13.5S/79.6E, MAX WIND=065KT. 72H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 14.0S/78.8E, MAX WIND=070KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- "CARINA" LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS RELOCATED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF LATEST AMSR-E MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (1946Z). THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY : UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE), A CDO PATTERN GOT ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ; BUT A MODERATE EASTERN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIMITS THE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF THE SYSTEM. TH E LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS LOCATED UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN AND "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 240026 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 24/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 005/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 24/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (CARINA) 993 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.8S / 81.7E (ONZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES SEPT EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 3 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 300 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE DANS LES QUADRANTS OUEST ET EST. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 24/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 12.2S / 81.5E, VENT MAX = 40 KT. A 24H POUR LE 25/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 12.5S / 81.2E, VENT MAX = 50 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME EST REPOSITIONNE PLUS AU SUD AFIN DE TENIR COMPTE DES DERNIERES DONNES SATELLITAIRES. LE SYSTEME "CARINA" S'INTENSIFIE LENTEMENT, LES AMAS NUAGEUX ET ORAGEUX ASSOCIES S'ORGANISENT PROGRESSIVEMENT. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST, EN S'INTENSIFIANT REGULIEREMENT SOUS L'EFFET DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 240026 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 81.7E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/24 12 UTC: 12.2S/81.5E, MAX WIND=040KT. 24H: 2006/02/25 00 UTC: 12.5S/81.2E, MAX WIND=050KT. 36H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 12.9S/80.9E, MAX WIND=055KT. 48H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 13.0S/80.4E, MAX WIND=060KT. 60H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 13.5S/79.6E, MAX WIND=065KT. 72H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 14.0S/78.8E, MAX WIND=070KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- "CARINA" LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS RELOCATED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF LATEST AMSR-E MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (1946Z). THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY : UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE), A CDO PATTERN GOT ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ; BUT A MODERATE EASTERN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIMITS THE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF THE SYSTEM. TH E LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS LOCATED UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN AND "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 240026 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 24/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 993 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 81.7E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 300 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/24 AT 12 UTC: 12.2S / 81.5E, MAX WIND = 40 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/02/25 AT 00 UTC: 12.5S / 81.2E, MAX WIND = 50 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA. THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY, ASSOCIATED CLOUD CLUSTERS NOW SHOW A BETTER ORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. .