** WTAU01 ABRF 231817 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1817 UTC 23 February 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical Cyclone Kate with a central pressure of 990 hectopascals was located at 231800 UTC near 12.0 south 147.5 east and moving towards the ESE at 7 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/40 knots. Maximum winds may increase to 50 knots near the centre over the next 24 hours. Seas rising very rough. Forecast position at 240600 UTC 12.3 south and 147.8 east with central pressure 988 hPa and maximum winds to 45 knots. Forecast position at 241800 UTC 12.6 south and 148.5 east with central pressure 985 hPa and maximum winds to 50 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 231817 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1817 UTC 23 February 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical Cyclone Kate with a central pressure of 990 hectopascals was located at 231800 UTC near 12.0 south 147.5 east and moving towards the ESE at 7 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 30/40 knots. Maximum winds may increase to 50 knots near the centre over the next 24 hours. Seas rising very rough. Forecast position at 240600 UTC 12.3 south and 147.8 east with central pressure 988 hPa and maximum winds to 45 knots. Forecast position at 241800 UTC 12.6 south and 148.5 east with central pressure 985 hPa and maximum winds to 50 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 231817 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1817 UTC 23 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS LOCATED AT 231800 UTC NEAR 12.0 SOUTH 147.5 EAST AND MOVING TOWARDS THE ESE AT 7 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 30/40 KNOTS. MAXIMUM WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS RISING VERY ROUGH. FORECAST POSITION AT 240600 UTC 12.3 SOUTH AND 147.8 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AT 241800 UTC 12.6 SOUTH AND 148.5 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 50 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTIO20 FMEE 231824 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 996 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 81.4E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/24 AT 06 UTC: 10.9S / 81.2E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/24 AT 18 UTC: 11.2S / 80.9E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY, ASSOCIATED CLOUD CLUSTERS NOW SHOW A BETTER ORGANIZATION. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM REMAINED QUASI-STATIONNARY ; IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 231824 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/02/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 004/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 23/02/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (CARINA) 996 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.8S / 81.4E (DIX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST. COUP DE VENT 35 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 24/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 10.9S / 81.2E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 24/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 11.2S / 80.9E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME "CARINA" S'INTENSIFIE LENTEMENT, LES AMAS NUAGEUX ET ORAGEUX ASSOCIES S'ORGANISENT PROGRESSIVEMENT. AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LE SYSTEME ES RESTE QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ; IL EST PREVU SUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE EN DIRECTION GENERALE DU SUD-OUEST, EN S'INTENSIFIANT REGULIEREMENT SOUS L'EFFET DE CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES FAVORABLES. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 231824 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 996 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 81.4E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/24 AT 06 UTC: 10.9S / 81.2E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/24 AT 18 UTC: 11.2S / 80.9E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY, ASSOCIATED CLOUD CLUSTERS NOW SHOW A BETTER ORGANIZATION. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM REMAINED QUASI-STATIONNARY ; IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 231835 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 81.4E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/24 06 UTC: 10.9S/81.2E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/24 18 UTC: 11.2S/80.9E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/25 06 UTC: 11.5S/80.6E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 11.9S/80.3E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 12.3S/79.9E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 12.6S/79.5E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CONSOLIDATING UNDER THE EFFECT OF FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE), BUT THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNDERGOING A SLIGHTLY UNFAVOURABLE EASTERN VERTICAL WIND S HEAR. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM REMAINED QUASI-STATIONNARY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY ; UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS, IT SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 231835 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 81.4E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/24 06 UTC: 10.9S/81.2E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/24 18 UTC: 11.2S/80.9E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/25 06 UTC: 11.5S/80.6E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 11.9S/80.3E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 12.3S/79.9E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 12.6S/79.5E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CONSOLIDATING UNDER THE EFFECT OF FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE), BUT THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNDERGOING A SLIGHTLY UNFAVOURABLE EASTERN VERTICAL WIND S HEAR. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM REMAINED QUASI-STATIONNARY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY ; UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS, IT SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. . ** WTPS31 PGTW 232100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KATE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 147.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 147.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 12.4S 148.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 13.0S 149.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 13.8S 150.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 15.2S 151.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 147.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 13P IS BEING STEERED BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF A MERIDIONAL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CORAL SEA AND BEGIN TO STEER THE STORM ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP TC 13P AS A MODERATE STRENGTH STORM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.// ** WTXS32 PGTW 232100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 81.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 81.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 11.5S 81.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 11.9S 80.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 12.3S 80.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 12.8S 79.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 81.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A RIDGE SITUATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST AND ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//