** WTIN20 DEMS 230600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 23-02-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL (.) THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA PASSES THROUGH 11 DEG.NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTIO20 FMEE 230614 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 999 HPA POSITION: 10.5S / 81.8E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST ) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 350 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/23 AT 18 UTC: 11.2S / 81.6E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/24 AT 06 UTC: 12.0S / 81.4E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS INTENFYING AND ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS ORGANIZE. IT SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWARDS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THANKS TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 230614 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 999 HPA POSITION: 10.5S / 81.8E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST ) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 350 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/23 AT 18 UTC: 11.2S / 81.6E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/24 AT 06 UTC: 12.0S / 81.4E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS INTENFYING AND ASSOCIATED CLUSTERS ORGANIZE. IT SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWARDS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THANKS TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TD LOCATED AT 09.4N 110.8E 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL (TYPHOON MODEL) ON TD LOCATED AT 09.4N 110.8E AT 06 UTC IS VALID TILL 36 HOURS. THIS IS A SPECIAL ISSUE TO REPORT VALID PORTION OF RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 230614 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 002/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 23/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10 999 HPA POSITION: 10.5S / 81.8E (DIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES HUIT EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD 4 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS S'ETENDANT DANS UN RAYON DE 350 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 23/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 11.2S / 81.6E, VENT MAX = 35 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 24/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 12.0S / 81.4E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME S'INTENSIFIE ET LES AMAS NUAGEUX ASSOCIES S'ORGANISENT. IL DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE GENERALE VERS LE SUD, ET S'INTENSIFIER REGULIEREMENT AVEC LES BONNES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES DONT IL BENEFICIE. . ** WTAU01 ABRF 230623 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0623 UTC 23 February 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical Cyclone Kate with a central pressure of 985 hectopascals located at 230600 UTC near 11.3 south 146.4 east and moving east-southeast at 9 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 80 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 40/45 knots within 80 nautical miles of the centre and increasing to 50 knots with 20nm of centre. Maximum winds increasing to 55 to 60 knots near the centre over the next 24 hours. Seas rising very rough to high. Forecast position at 231800 UTC 11.9 south and 147.8 east with central pressure 980 hPa and maximum winds to 55 knots. Forecast position at 240600 UTC 12.5 south and 148.8 east with central pressure 975 hPa and maximum winds to 60 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 230623 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0623 UTC 23 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 HECTOPASCALS LOCATED AT 230600 UTC NEAR 11.3 SOUTH 146.4 EAST AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 40/45 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE AND INCREASING TO 50 KNOTS WITH 20NM OF CENTRE. MAXIMUM WINDS INCREASING TO 55 TO 60 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS RISING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. FORECAST POSITION AT 231800 UTC 11.9 SOUTH AND 147.8 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AT 240600 UTC 12.5 SOUTH AND 148.8 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 60 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 230623 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0623 UTC 23 February 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical Cyclone Kate with a central pressure of 985 hectopascals located at 230600 UTC near 11.3 south 146.4 east and moving east-southeast at 9 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 80 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 40/45 knots within 80 nautical miles of the centre and increasing to 50 knots with 20nm of centre. Maximum winds increasing to 55 to 60 knots near the centre over the next 24 hours. Seas rising very rough to high. Forecast position at 231800 UTC 11.9 south and 147.8 east with central pressure 980 hPa and maximum winds to 55 knots. Forecast position at 240600 UTC 12.5 south and 148.8 east with central pressure 975 hPa and maximum winds to 60 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTIO30 FMEE 230625 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 2.A POSITION 2006/02/23 AT 0600 UTC : 10.5S / 81.8E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/23 18 UTC: 11.2S/81.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/02/24 06 UTC: 12.0S/81.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/02/24 18 UTC: 12.7S/81.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/25 06 UTC: 13.5S/80.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 14.3S/80.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 15.0S/80.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING ; CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST HOURS, AND QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0032Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION; GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOWS OF TRADE WINDS AND MONSOON, WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE), AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (GOOD EQUATOWARDS AND POLEWARDS OUTFLOW CHANNELS). MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO SLOWLY TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS (LIKELY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM), AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IT.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 230625 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 2.A POSITION 2006/02/23 AT 0600 UTC : 10.5S / 81.8E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/23 18 UTC: 11.2S/81.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/02/24 06 UTC: 12.0S/81.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/02/24 18 UTC: 12.7S/81.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/25 06 UTC: 13.5S/80.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 14.3S/80.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 15.0S/80.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING ; CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST HOURS, AND QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0032Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION; GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOWS OF TRADE WINDS AND MONSOON, WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE), AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (GOOD EQUATOWARDS AND POLEWARDS OUTFLOW CHANNELS). MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO SLOWLY TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS (LIKELY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM), AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IT. . ** WTPS31 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KATE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 11.4S 146.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 146.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 11.8S 147.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 12.2S 148.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 12.8S 149.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 13.6S 149.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 146.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 13P IS BEING STEERED BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF A MERIDIONAL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CORAL SEA AND BEGIN TO STEER THE STORM ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP TC 13P AS A MODERATE STRENGTH STORM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.// ** WTPS31 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KATE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 11.4S 146.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 146.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 11.8S 147.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 12.2S 148.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 12.8S 149.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 13.6S 149.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 146.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 13P IS BEING STEERED BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF A MERIDIONAL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CORAL SEA AND BEGIN TO STEER THE STORM ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP TC 13P AS A MODERATE STRENGTH STORM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES// ** WTXS32 PGTW 230900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/230752ZFEB2006// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230321ZFEB2006// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 10.7S 81.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 81.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 11.2S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 11.5S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 11.6S 78.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 11.8S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 80.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. BUILDING RIDGING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWARD AROUND TAU 36. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 230321Z FEB 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 230330) MAX- IMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//