** WTIO20 FMEE 230017 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.9S / 81.4E (NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 350 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. WIDE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/23 AT 12 UTC: 10.5S / 81.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/24 AT 00 UTC: 11.1S / 81.9E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CIRCULATION IS BETTER AND BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND A CENTER WHICH IS STILL BADLY DEFINED., WITH WIDE CURVED BAND PATTERN, ACTIVE AND SCATTERED . ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION. AT THIS STAGE, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSQTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 230017 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.9S / 81.4E (NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 350 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. WIDE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/23 AT 12 UTC: 10.5S / 81.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/24 AT 00 UTC: 11.1S / 81.9E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CIRCULATION IS BETTER AND BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND A CENTER WHICH IS STILL BADLY DEFINED., WITH WIDE CURVED BAND PATTERN, ACTIVE AND SCATTERED .. ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION. AT THIS STAGE, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSQTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 230017 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 001/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 23/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10 1002 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.9S / 81.4E (NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS S'ETENDANT DANS UN RAYON DE 350MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. VASTE CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 23/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 10.5S / 81.2E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 24/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 11.1S / 81.9E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION EST DE MIEUX EN MIEUX ORGANISEE AUTOUR D'UN CENTRE ENCORE MAL DEFINI, AVEC L'ENROULEMENT DE VASTES BANDES INCURVEES ACTIVES ET MORCELEES. L'ENSEMBLE DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES A L'INTENSIFICATION DE CE SYSTEME. A CE STADE, IL NE JUSTIFIE PAS ENCORE L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS. . ** WTAU01 ABRF 230017 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0017 UTC 23 February 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical Cyclone Kate with a central pressure of 992 hectopascals located at 230000 UTC near 11.0 south 145.0 east and moving east-southeast at 4 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 80 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/40 knots initially within 60 nautical miles of the centre, expanding to 80 nautical miles over the next 24 hours. Maximum winds increasing to 55 knots near the centre over the next 24 hours. Seas rising very rough to high. Forecast position at 231200 UTC 11.3 south and 146.4 east with central pressure 987 hPa and maximum winds to 50 knots. Forecast position at 240000 UTC 11.7 south and 146.7 east with central pressure 980 hPa and maximum winds to 55 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 230017 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0017 UTC 23 February 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical Cyclone Kate with a central pressure of 992 hectopascals located at 230000 UTC near 11.0 south 145.0 east and moving east-southeast at 4 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 80 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/40 knots initially within 60 nautical miles of the centre, expanding to 80 nautical miles over the next 24 hours. Maximum winds increasing to 55 knots near the centre over the next 24 hours. Seas rising very rough to high. Forecast position at 231200 UTC 11.3 south and 146.4 east with central pressure 987 hPa and maximum winds to 50 knots. Forecast position at 240000 UTC 11.7 south and 146.7 east with central pressure 980 hPa and maximum winds to 55 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 230017 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0017 UTC 23 FEBRUARY 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 992 HECTOPASCALS LOCATED AT 230000 UTC NEAR 11.0 SOUTH 145.0 EAST AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 4 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. AREA AFFECTED WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. FORECAST CLOCKWISE WINDS 35/40 KNOTS INITIALLY WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE, EXPANDING TO 80 NAUTICAL MILES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS RISING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. FORECAST POSITION AT 231200 UTC 11.3 SOUTH AND 146.4 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AT 240000 UTC 11.7 SOUTH AND 146.7 EAST WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HPA AND MAXIMUM WINDS TO 55 KNOTS. REMARKS ALL SHIPS IN THE AREA PLEASE SEND WEATHER REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS. REGULAR WEATHER OBSERVING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER SHIPS PLEASE USE EITHER EMAIL TO MARWXQLD@BOM.GOV.AU OR FAX TO +61732398776 OR SATELLITE TO SAC 41 THROUGH LAND EARTH STATION PERTH 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTAU01 ABRF 230017 *** IDQ20008 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0017 UTC 23 February 2006 STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA SITUATION Tropical Cyclone Kate with a central pressure of 992 hectopascals located at 230000 UTC near 11.0 south 145.0 east and moving east-southeast at 4 knots. Position fair. AREA AFFECTED Within 80 nautical miles of the centre. FORECAST Clockwise winds 35/40 knots initially within 60 nautical miles of the centre, expanding to 80 nautical miles over the next 24 hours. Maximum winds increasing to 55 knots near the centre over the next 24 hours. Seas rising very rough to high. Forecast position at 231200 UTC 11.3 south and 146.4 east with central pressure 987 hPa and maximum winds to 50 knots. Forecast position at 240000 UTC 11.7 south and 146.7 east with central pressure 980 hPa and maximum winds to 55 knots. REMARKS All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41 through Land Earth Station Perth 222. WEATHER BRISBANE ** WTIO20 FMEE 230025 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.9S / 81.4E (NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 350 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. WIDE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/23 AT 12 UTC: 10.5S / 81.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/24 AT 00 UTC: 11.1S / 80.9E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CIRCULATION IS BETTER AND BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND A CENTER WHICH IS STILL BADLY DEFINED., WITH WIDE CURVED BAND PATTERN, ACTIVE AND SCATTERED . ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION. AT THIS STAGE, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSQTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 230025 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 23/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 23/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 1002 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.9S / 81.4E (NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 350 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE. WIDE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/23 AT 12 UTC: 10.5S / 81.2E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/24 AT 00 UTC: 11.1S / 80.9E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CIRCULATION IS BETTER AND BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND A CENTER WHICH IS STILL BADLY DEFINED., WITH WIDE CURVED BAND PATTERN, ACTIVE AND SCATTERED .. ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION. AT THIS STAGE, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSQTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 230025 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIF *************** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 23/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 001/10 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 23/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10 1002 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.9S / 81.4E (NEUF DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-UN DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 4 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS S'ETENDANT DANS UN RAYON DE 350MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. VASTE CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 23/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 10.5S / 81.2E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 24/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 11.1S / 80.9E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LA CIRCULATION EST DE MIEUX EN MIEUX ORGANISEE AUTOUR D'UN CENTRE ENCORE MAL DEFINI, AVEC L'ENROULEMENT DE VASTES BANDES INCURVEES ACTIVES ET MORCELEES. L'ENSEMBLE DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONMENTALES SONT FAVORABLES A L'INTENSIFICATION DE CE SYSTEME. A CE STADE, IL NE JUSTIFIE PAS ENCORE L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 230038 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 2.A POSITION 2006/02/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.9S / 81.4E (NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 PLUS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/23 12 UTC: 10.5S/81.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/02/24 00 UTC: 11.1S/80.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/02/24 12 UTC: 11.9S/80.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/25 00 UTC: 12.7S/80.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 13.5S/80.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 14.2S/80.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CIRCULATION IS ORGANIZING RAPIDLY WITH WIDE SCATTERED AND CURVED BANDS. ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION (WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOWS IN TRADE WINDS FLOWS AND MOOSOON FLOWS, HUMID AND INSTABLE AIR IN ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, LOX PRESSURES, SST SUPERIOR TO 28AOC). AT THIS STAGE, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSQTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 230038 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 2.A POSITION 2006/02/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.9S / 81.4E (NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 PLUS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/23 12 UTC: 10.5S/81.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/02/24 00 UTC: 11.1S/80.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 36H: 2006/02/24 12 UTC: 11.9S/80.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/25 00 UTC: 12.7S/80.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 13.5S/80.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 14.2S/80.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CIRCULATION IS ORGANIZING RAPIDLY WITH WIDE SCATTERED AND CURVED BANDS. ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION (WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOWS IN TRADE WINDS FLOWS AND MOOSOON FLOWS, HUMID AND INSTABLE AIR IN ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, LOX PRESSURES, SST SUPERIOR TO 28AoC). AT THIS STAGE, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSQTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 230108 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 2.A POSITION 2006/02/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.9S / 81.4E (NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 PLUS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/23 12 UTC: 10.5S/81.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/02/24 00 UTC: 11.1S/80.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/24 12 UTC: 11.9S/80.7E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/25 00 UTC: 12.7S/80.5E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 13.5S/80.3E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 14.2S/80.1E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- THE CIRCULATION IS ORGANIZING RAPIDLY WITH WIDE SCATTERED AND CURVED BANDS. ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION (WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOWS IN TRADE WINDS FLOWS AND MOOSOON FLOWS, HUMID AND INSTABLE AIR IN ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, LOX PRESSURES, SST SUPERIOR TO 28AOC). AT THIS STAGE, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSQTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 230108 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 2.A POSITION 2006/02/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.9S / 81.4E (NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 PLUS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/23 12 UTC: 10.5S/81.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/02/24 00 UTC: 11.1S/80.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/24 12 UTC: 11.9S/80.7E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/25 00 UTC: 12.7S/80.5E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 13.5S/80.3E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 14.2S/80.1E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- THE CIRCULATION IS ORGANIZING RAPIDLY WITH WIDE SCATTERED AND CURVED BANDS. ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION (WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOWS IN TRADE WINDS FLOWS AND MOOSOON FLOWS, HUMID AND INSTABLE AIR IN ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, LOX PRESSURES, SST SUPERIOR TO 28AoC). AT THIS STAGE, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSQTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTXS21 PGTW 230330 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 230321Z FEB 06// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S 81.5E TO 11.9S 80.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 230000Z INDI- CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 81.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 10.1S 81.4E, APPROXIMATELY 555 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 230032Z SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEAL DEEP CONVECTION OVER A MORE ORGANIZED AND SLIGHTLY ELON- GATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 MB. DUE TO INCREASED OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND A MORE ORGANIZED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 240330Z.//