** WTIO22 FMEE 210017 ***
SECURITE

WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)

ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/02/2006

AT

0000 UTC.

WARNING NUMBER: 008/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)

(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)

(INDICATIVE FIGURE).



WARNING

BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY   21/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC.



PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 1002 HPA

POSITION:          WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8S / 57.4E

(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR

DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC

MOVEMENT:          NORTH-WEST 4 KT



THREAT AREAS:

SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING

UP TO

 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.



CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM

RADIUS OF THE CENTER , LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT

AND

ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12H, VALID 2006/02/21 AT 12 UTC:

18.5S / 56.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE.

24H, VALID 2006/02/22 AT 00 UTC:

18.3S / 56.3E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DISSIPATING.



OTHER INFORMATIONS:

LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS TOTALLY EXPOSED AT ABOUT 130 NM

WEST

OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

SYSTEM KEEPS ON  WEAKENING AND IS UNDERGOING THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW

LEVELS STEERING.

BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST, RESIDUAL VORTEX HAS STOPPED

AND

TURNED BACK.

IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY  WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND

DISSIPATE BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS.



LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION=




** WTIO30 FMEE 210017 ***


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 8/9/20052006

1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9



2.A POSITION 2006/02/21 AT 0000 UTC :

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8S / 57.4E

(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR

DEGREES EAST)



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/2.0 /W  1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT



6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2006/02/21 12 UTC: 18.5S/56.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.

DISTURBANCE.

24H: 2006/02/22 00 UTC: 18.3S/56.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.

36H: 2006/02/22 12 UTC: 18.1S/55.4E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING.





2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:

T=1.5 AND CI=2.0

LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS TOTALLY EXPOSED AT ABOUT 130 NM

WEST

OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

SYSTEM KEEPS ON  WEAKENING AND IS UNDERGOING THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW

LEVELS STEERING.

BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST, RESIDUAL VORTEX HAS STOPPED

AND

TURNED BACK.

IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY  WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND

DISSIPATE BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS.



LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION=




** WTIO22 FMEE 210017 ***
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 21/02/2006 AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY   21/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON:        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 1002 HPA 
POSITION:          WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8S / 57.4E 
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT:          NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM
RADIUS OF THE CENTER , LOCALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/02/21 AT 12 UTC: 
18.5S / 56.9E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE.
24H, VALID 2006/02/22 AT 00 UTC: 
18.3S / 56.3E, MAX WIND = 20 KT, DISSIPATING.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS TOTALLY EXPOSED AT ABOUT 130 NM WEST
OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON  WEAKENING AND IS UNDERGOING THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW
LEVELS STEERING.
BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST, RESIDUAL VORTEX HAS STOPPED AND
TURNED BACK.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY  WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND
DISSIPATE BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS.

LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION


.




** WTIO21 FMEE 210017 ***
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 21/02/2006 A 0000 UTC.
NUMERO: 008/09 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE).

AVERTISSEMENT
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: MARDI 21/02/2006 A 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENE:         PERTURBATION TROPICALE 9 1002 HPA 
POSITION:          DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.8S / 57.4E 
(DIX-HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 0000 UTC
DEPLACEMENT:       NORD-OUEST 4 KT
 
ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAIN DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A
 300 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST.

CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE 20/25KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON
DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET
MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.

PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 21/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 
18.5S / 56.9E, VENT MAX = 25 KT, PERTURB. TROPICALE.
A 24H POUR LE 22/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 
18.3S / 56.3E, VENT MAX = 20 KT, SE DISSIPANT.

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES:
LA CIRCULATION DEPRESSIONNAIRE DE BASSES COUCHES EST TOTALEMENT EXPOSEE A
 130 MN A L'OUEST DE LA CONVECTION PRINCIPALE.
LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE S'AFFAIBLIR ET EST MAINTENANT PASSE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DU FLUX DIRECTEUR DE BASSES COUCHES. 
BLOQUE PAR LA DORSALE AU SUD-EST, LE VORTEX RESIDUEL A STOPPE PUIS
REBROUSSE CHEMIN.
IL  EST PREVU CONTINUER SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALEMENT VERS
L'OUEST-NORD-OUEST PUIS SE DISSIPER D'ICI 24 A 36 HEURES.

DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTEME SAUF REINTENSIFICATION



.




** WTIO30 FMEE 210017 ***
 
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 8/9/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9

2.A POSITION 2006/02/21 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8S / 57.4E 
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 1.5/2.0 /W  1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/02/21 12 UTC: 18.5S/56.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2006/02/22 00 UTC: 18.3S/56.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
36H: 2006/02/22 12 UTC: 18.1S/55.4E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 AND CI=2.0
LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS TOTALLY EXPOSED AT ABOUT 130 NM WEST
OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON  WEAKENING AND IS UNDERGOING THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW
LEVELS STEERING.
BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST, RESIDUAL VORTEX HAS STOPPED AND
TURNED BACK.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY  WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND
DISSIPATE BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS.

LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION


.