** WTIO22 FMEE 200614 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 20/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 995 HPA POSITION: 19.2S / 58.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/20 AT 18 UTC: 19.5S / 59.2E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/21 AT 06 UTC: 20.0S / 60.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM HAS A VERY SMALL SIZE BUT ASSOCIATED WINDS CAN BE RATHER STRONG NEAR THE CENTER. IT UNDERGOES A STRONG WESTERLY WINDSHEAR. REGULARLY WEAKENING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING, BACKING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 48 HOURS.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 200614 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 20/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 995 HPA POSITION: 19.2S / 58.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/20 AT 18 UTC: 19.5S / 59.2E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/21 AT 06 UTC: 20.0S / 60.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM HAS A VERY SMALL SIZE BUT ASSOCIATED WINDS CAN BE RATHER STRONG NEAR THE CENTER. IT UNDERGOES A STRONG WESTERLY WINDSHEAR. REGULARLY WEAKENING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING, BACKING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 48 HOURS.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 200614 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 20/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 995 HPA POSITION: 19.2S / 58.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/20 AT 18 UTC: 19.5S / 59.2E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/21 AT 06 UTC: 20.0S / 60.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM HAS A VERY SMALL SIZE BUT ASSOCIATED WINDS CAN BE RATHER STRONG NEAR THE CENTER. IT UNDERGOES A STRONG WESTERLY WINDSHEAR. REGULARLY WEAKENING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING, BACKING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 48 HOURS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 200614 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 20/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 005/09 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 20/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 995 HPA POSITION: 19.2S / 58.1E (DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE-HUIT DEGRES UN EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 9 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAIN DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 20/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 19.5S / 59.2E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 21/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 20.0S / 60.1E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CE SYSTEME EST D'UNE TRES PETITE TAILLE MAIS LES VENTS ASSOCIES SONT ASSEZ FORTS PRES DU CENTRE. EN ALTITUDE IL SUBIT UNE CONTRAINTE IMPORTANTE D'OUEST. EN FAIBLISSANT REGULIEREMENT, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU FLUX DE BASSES COUCHES, BIFURQUER VERS LE SUD ET ADOPTER AU DELA DES 48 HEURES UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 200614 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 20/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 995 HPA POSITION: 19.2S / 58.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/20 AT 18 UTC: 19.5S / 59.2E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/21 AT 06 UTC: 20.0S / 60.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM HAS A VERY SMALL SIZE BUT ASSOCIATED WINDS CAN BE RATHER STRONG NEAR THE CENTER. IT UNDERGOES A STRONG WESTERLY WINDSHEAR. REGULARLY WEAKENING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING, BACKING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 48 HOURS.= ** WTIO22 FMEE 200614 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 20/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 20/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 995 HPA POSITION: 19.2S / 58.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/20 AT 18 UTC: 19.5S / 59.2E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/21 AT 06 UTC: 20.0S / 60.1E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM HAS A VERY SMALL SIZE BUT ASSOCIATED WINDS CAN BE RATHER STRONG NEAR THE CENTER. IT UNDERGOES A STRONG WESTERLY WINDSHEAR. REGULARLY WEAKENING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING, BACKING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 48 HOURS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 200614 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 20/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 005/09 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 20/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 995 HPA POSITION: 19.2S / 58.1E (DIX-NEUF DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE-HUIT DEGRES UN EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 9 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAIN DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 20/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 19.5S / 59.2E, VENT MAX = 40 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 21/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 20.0S / 60.1E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CE SYSTEME EST D'UNE TRES PETITE TAILLE MAIS LES VENTS ASSOCIES SONT ASSEZ FORTS PRES DU CENTRE. EN ALTITUDE IL SUBIT UNE CONTRAINTE IMPORTANTE D'OUEST. EN FAIBLISSANT REGULIEREMENT, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU FLUX DE BASSES COUCHES, BIFURQUER VERS LE SUD ET ADOPTER AU DELA DES 48 HEURES UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-OUEST. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 200633 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/9/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 2.A POSITION 2006/02/20 AT 0600 UTC : 19.2S / 58.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/20 18 UTC: 19.5S/59.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/02/21 06 UTC: 20.0S/60.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/02/21 18 UTC: 20.6S/60.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/02/22 06 UTC: 21.5S/60.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/02/22 18 UTC: 22.3S/59.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/02/23 06 UTC: 23.0S/58.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM SHOWS A MIDGET STRUCTURE WITH A VERY SMALL SIZE BUT STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. RADAR FIXES FROM LA REUNION INDICATE LOSS OF ORGANIZATION OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE SINCE 0449Z. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A STRONG WESTERLY WINDSHEAR, CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE IMAGERY THANKS TO A CIRRUS BOW. WHILE WEAKENING STEADILY THROUGH WINDSHEAR, THE SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO LOWERING OF STEERING LEVELS, BACKING SOUTHWARDS THAN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 48 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 200633 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/9/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 2.A POSITION 2006/02/20 AT 0600 UTC : 19.2S / 58.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/20 18 UTC: 19.5S/59.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/02/21 06 UTC: 20.0S/60.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/02/21 18 UTC: 20.6S/60.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/02/22 06 UTC: 21.5S/60.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/02/22 18 UTC: 22.3S/59.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/02/23 06 UTC: 23.0S/58.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM SHOWS A MIDGET STRUCTURE WITH A VERY SMALL SIZE BUT STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. RADAR FIXES FROM LA REUNION INDICATE LOSS OF ORGANIZATION OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE SINCE 0449Z. THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A STRONG WESTERLY WINDSHEAR, CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE IMAGERY THANKS TO A CIRRUS BOW. WHILE WEAKENING STEADILY THROUGH WINDSHEAR, THE SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO LOWERING OF STEERING LEVELS, BACKING SOUTHWARDS THAN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 48 HOURS. . ** WTIN20 DEMS 200635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 20-02-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL (.) WESTERLIES ARE PREVAILING OVER THE INDIAN REGION. ** WTXS31 PGTW 200900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 58.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 58.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 20.3S 59.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.5S 59.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 22.3S 59.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.9S 58.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 58.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTH- EAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST PAST TAU 24. HOWEVER, AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRON- MENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.//