** WTIO22 FMEE 191806 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 19/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 19/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 995 HPA POSITION: 19.0S / 57.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/20 AT 06 UTC: 20.0S / 58.1E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/02/20 AT 18 UTC: 21.0S / 57.7E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM SHOWS A MIDGET STRUCTURE WITH A VERY SMALL SIZE BUT STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. IT SHOULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE, THEN WEAKEN UNDERGOING UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. IT IS EXPECTED VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 191806 *** SECURITE GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 19/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: S ** WTIO30 FMEE 191808 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/9/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 2.A POSITION 2006/02/19 AT 1800 UTC : 19.0S / 57.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/20 06 UTC: 20.0S/58.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/20 18 UTC: 21.0S/57.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/21 06 UTC: 21.8S/56.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/02/21 18 UTC: 22.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/02/22 06 UTC: 23.0S/51.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/02/22 18 UTC: 22.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM SHOWS A MIDGET STRUCTURE WITH A VERY SMALL SIZE BUT STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. IT SHOULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE, THEN WEAKEN UNDERGOING UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. IT IS EXPECTED VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 191808 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/9/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 2.A POSITION 2006/02/19 AT 1800 UTC : 19.0S / 57.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/20 06 UTC: 20.0S/58.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/20 18 UTC: 21.0S/57.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/21 06 UTC: 21.8S/56.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/02/21 18 UTC: 22.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/02/22 06 UTC: 23.0S/51.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/02/22 18 UTC: 22.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM SHOWS A MIDGET STRUCTURE WITH A VERY SMALL SIZE BUT STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. IT SHOULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE, THEN WEAKEN UNDERGOING UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. IT IS EXPECTED VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 191808 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/9/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 2.A POSITION 2006/02/19 AT 1800 UTC : 19.0S / 57.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/20 06 UTC: 20.0S/58.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/20 18 UTC: 21.0S/57.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/21 06 UTC: 21.8S/56.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 48H: 2006/02/21 18 UTC: 22.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/02/22 06 UTC: 23.0S/51.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/02/22 18 UTC: 22.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM SHOWS A MIDGET STRUCTURE WITH A VERY SMALL SIZE BUT STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. IT SHOULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE, THEN WEAKEN UNDERGOING UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. IT IS EXPECTED VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 191808 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/9/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 2.A POSITION 2006/02/19 AT 1800 UTC : 19.0S / 57.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/20 06 UTC: 20.0S/58.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/20 18 UTC: 21.0S/57.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/21 06 UTC: 21.8S/56.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/02/21 18 UTC: 22.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/02/22 06 UTC: 23.0S/51.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/02/22 18 UTC: 22.0S/49.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM SHOWS A MIDGET STRUCTURE WITH A VERY SMALL SIZE BUT STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. IT SHOULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE, THEN WEAKEN UNDERGOING UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. IT IS EXPECTED VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 191806 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 19/02/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 003/09 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE COUP DE VENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 19/02/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 9 995 HPA POSITION: 19.0S / 57.0E (DIX-NEUF DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE-SEPT DEGRES ZERO EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAIN DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 20/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 20.0S / 58.1E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 20/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 21.0S / 57.7E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CE SYSTEME EST UN SYSTEME DE TYPE MIDGET AVEC UNE TRES PETITE TAILLE MAIS DES VENTS ASSEZ FORTS PRES DU CENTRE. IL EST PREVU S'INTENSIFIER ENCORE LEGEREMENT, PUIS FAIBLIR SOUS L'EFFET D 'UNE CONTRAINTE D'ALTITUDE. IL EST PREVU VIRER VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT PAR LE SUD-OUEST. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 192100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191421Z FEB 06// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 56.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 56.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 20.1S 57.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.2S 57.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.8S 56.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 22.0S 55.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 57.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND TRANSITORY RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TC AFTER TAU 24 CAUSING TC 12S TO TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY TRACK. A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL PERSIST IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR GRADIENT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 191421ZFEB 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 191430). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.//