** WTSR20 WSSS 190600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO22 FMEE 191229 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 19/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 19/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5S / 56.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/20 AT 00 UTC: 19.6S / 57.5E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/20 AT 12 UTC: 20.7S / 58.1E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM IS BECOMMING A MIDGET WITH A VERY SMALL SIZE BUT STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. DUE TO THIS CONFIGURATION, IT SHOULD INTENSIFY VERY QUICKLY. IT IS EXPECTED VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 191229 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 19/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 002/09 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 19/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 9 999 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 18.5S / 56.2E (DIX-HUIT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET CINQUANTE-SIX DEGRES DEUX EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAIN DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 20/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 19.6S / 57.5E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. A 24H POUR LE 20/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 20.7S / 58.1E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: CE SYSTEME EVOLUE VERS UN SYSTEME DE TYPE MIDGET AVEC UNE TRES PETITE TAILLE MAIS DES VENTS ASSEZ FORTS PRES DU CENTRE. AVEC CETTE CONFIGURATION IL POURRAIT S'INTENSIFIER TRES RAPIDEMENT. IL EST PREVU VIRER VERS LES SUD PUIS LE SUD-OUEST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DES HAUTES PRESSIONS QUI SE RECONSTITUENT PAR LE SUD-OUEST. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 191229 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 19/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 19/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5S / 56.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/20 AT 00 UTC: 19.6S / 57.5E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, TEMP. TROP. MODEREE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/20 AT 12 UTC: 20.7S / 58.1E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM IS BECOMMING A MIDGET WITH A VERY SMALL SIZE BUT STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. DUE TO THIS CONFIGURATION, IT SHOULD INTENSIFY VERY QUICKLY. IT IS EXPECTED VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 191243 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/9/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 2.A POSITION 2006/02/19 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5S / 56.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/20 00 UTC: 19.6S/57.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/02/20 12 UTC: 20.7S/58.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/21 00 UTC: 21.2S/57.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/21 12 UTC: 21.6S/56.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 60H: 2006/02/22 00 UTC: 22.0S/55.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/02/22 12 UTC: 22.5S/54.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED LAST NIGHT WITH THE MAINTAIN OF A CLUSTER SINCE 0000UTC. THIS LOW PRESENTS AN UNUSUAL CONFIGURATION. LATEST REUNION'S ISLAND RADAR IMAGERY AND MICROWAVES (TRMM AT 0556UTC AND SSMIS F16 AT 0447UTC) INDICATE A MESO-VORTEX IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RAIN-FREE CENTRAL LOOKING LIKE AN EYE-LINE FEATURE WITHIN A WELL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. IN THE LOW LEVELS, SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS DIFFICULT TO BE ESTIMATED WITHOUT NEW INDICATIONS. THERE IS NOW A STRONG SUSPICION THAT WINDS OF THE MESO-VORTEX HAS REACHED THE SURFACE AND THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING A MIDGET VERY LITTLE BUT WITH STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. DUE TO THE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON BAD RESOLVED QUIKSCAT SWAT, NWP ANALYSE BADLY THIS CIRCULATION AND DISAGREE FOR THE SCENARIO. IN THIS CONDITIONS, UKMO NWP MODEL SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER ONE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED VEERING SOUTHWARDS WITHIN 24HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS MORE CLOSER OF THE MSACAREIGNES ISLAND WITHOUT DEEPEN STRONGLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 191243 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/9/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 2.A POSITION 2006/02/19 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.5S / 56.2E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/20 00 UTC: 19.6S/57.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 24H: 2006/02/20 12 UTC: 20.7S/58.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/21 00 UTC: 21.2S/57.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/21 12 UTC: 21.6S/56.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 60H: 2006/02/22 00 UTC: 22.0S/55.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/02/22 12 UTC: 22.5S/54.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED LAST NIGHT WITH THE MAINTAIN OF A CLUSTER SINCE 0000UTC. THIS LOW PRESENTS AN UNUSUAL CONFIGURATION. LATEST REUNION'S ISLAND RADAR IMAGERY AND MICROWAVES (TRMM AT 0556UTC AND SSMIS F16 AT 0447UTC) INDICATE A MESO-VORTEX IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RAIN-FREE CENTRAL LOOKING LIKE AN EYE-LINE FEATURE WITHIN A WELL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. IN THE LOW LEVELS, SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS DIFFICULT TO BE ESTIMATED WITHOUT NEW INDICATIONS. THERE IS NOW A STRONG SUSPICION THAT WINDS OF THE MESO-VORTEX HAS REACHED THE SURFACE AND THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING A MIDGET VERY LITTLE BUT WITH STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. DUE TO THE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON BAD RESOLVED QUIKSCAT SWAT, NWP ANALYSE BADLY THIS CIRCULATION AND DISAGREE FOR THE SCENARIO. IN THIS CONDITIONS, UKMO NWP MODEL SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER ONE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED VEERING SOUTHWARDS WITHIN 24HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS MORE CLOSER OF THE MSACAREIGNES ISLAND WITHOUT DEEPEN STRONGLY. . ** WTXS21 PGTW 191430 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/191421ZFEB2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0S 55.8E TO 20.0S 56.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 191130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 55.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 18.2S 55.9E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRC- ULATION CENTER HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE AREA IS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A TIGHT SHEAR GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201430Z.//