** WTIO21 FMEE 190625 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 19/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 001/09 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVERTISSEMENT DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 19/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: PERTURBATION TROPICALE 9 1003 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.6S / 55.2E (DIX-SEPT DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE-CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 9 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAIN DANS UN RAYON DE 50 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE CIRCULATION DEPRESIONNAIRE 15/25KT ET MER AGITEE A FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 19/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 18.5S / 55.7E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. A 24H POUR LE 20/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 19.6S / 55.4E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME SEMBLE S'INTENSIFIER DEPUIS QUELQUES HEURES. IL EST PREVU DESCENDRE VERS LE SUD PUIS LE SUD-OUEST EN S'INTENSIFIANT LENTEMENT. A CE STADE, CE SYSTEME NE JUSTIFIE PAS L'EMISSION DE BULLETINS REGULIERS. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 190625 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 19/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 19/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 55.2E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/19 AT 18 UTC: 18.5S / 55.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/20 AT 06 UTC: 19.6S / 55.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM SEEMS TO INTENSIFY DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. AT THIS STAGE , THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. . ** WTIO22 FMEE 190625 *** SECURITE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 19/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/09 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 19/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 1003 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 55.2E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 15/25KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/19 AT 18 UTC: 18.5S / 55.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/20 AT 06 UTC: 19.6S / 55.4E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, DEPR. TROPICALE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM SEEMS TO INTENSIFY DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. AT THIS STAGE , THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 190626 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/9/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 2.A POSITION 2006/02/19 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 55.2E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/19 18 UTC: 18.5S/55.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/02/20 06 UTC: 19.6S/55.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/02/20 18 UTC: 20.2S/54.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/02/21 06 UTC: 21.0S/54.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/02/21 18 UTC: 21.7S/53.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/02/22 06 UTC: 22.5S/52.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0 LATEST RADAR AND MICROWAVES IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MESO-VORTEX IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RAIN-FREE CENTRAL AREA WITHIN THIS NUCLEUS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. AT THIS STAGE , THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 190626 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/9/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9 2.A POSITION 2006/02/19 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6S / 55.2E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/19 18 UTC: 18.5S/55.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/02/20 06 UTC: 19.6S/55.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/02/20 18 UTC: 20.2S/54.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/02/21 06 UTC: 21.0S/54.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/02/21 18 UTC: 21.7S/53.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/02/22 06 UTC: 22.5S/52.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0 LATEST RADAR AND MICROWAVES IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MESO-VORTEX IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RAIN-FREE CENTRAL AREA WITHIN THIS NUCLEUS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. AT THIS STAGE , THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS. .