** WTSR20 WSSS 140600 ***
NO STORM WARNING=




** WTPS11 NFFN 141200 ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A18 issued from RSMC NADI

Feb 14/1417 UTC 2006 UTC.



Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 23.7 South

174.2 West at 14012600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR/VIS

imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving

southeast about 10 knots. Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to

the centre. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre,

over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 150

miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and

within 100 miles elsewhere.    



Overall organisation still remains good. Outer convective bands are

weakening but inner bands continue to wrap tightly around llcc.

Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere.

Shear remains minimal. SST about 28C. Vaianu is expected to weaken

beyound 25S due to cooler SSTs and increased shear aloft. Dvorak

analysis based on centre embedded in LG yielding DT=4.5. PT=MET=4.5,

thus T4.5/4.5/S0.5/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southeast by a

deep northwest steering flow. Global models generally agree on this

with graduall weakening.

 

FORECAST:

12hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 25.0S 174.3W mov ESE at 08kt with 65

kt close to the centre.  

24hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 26.4S 171.5W mov SE at 08kt with 60 kt

close to the centre.



OUTLOOK:

36hrs valid at 160000 UTC near 27.7S 169.7W mov SE at 08kt with 50kt

close to the centre.

48hrs valid at 161200 UTC near 28.9S 168.7W mov SE at 08kt with 40kt

close to the centre.



The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU

will be issued around 142000 UTC.




** WTPS11 NFFN 141200     ***

PART 01


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

FEB 14/1417 UTC 2006 UTC.


TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU [965HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7 SOUTH

174.2 WEST AT 14012600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS

IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING

SOUTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO

THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150

MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND

WITHIN 100 MILES ELSEWHERE.    


OVERALL ORGANISATION STILL REMAINS GOOD. OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE

WEAKENING BUT INNER BANDS CONTINUE TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC.

OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO SOUTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.

SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL. SST ABOUT 28C. VAIANU IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN

BEYOUND 25S DUE TO COOLER SSTS AND INCREASED SHEAR ALOFT. DVORAK

ANALYSIS BASED ON CENTRE EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDING DT=4.5. PT=MET=


END PART 01




** WTPS11 NFFN 141200     ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A18 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 14/1417 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 23.7 South
174.2 West at 14012600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR/VIS
imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving
southeast about 10 knots. Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to
the centre. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre,
over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 150
miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and
within 100 miles elsewhere.    

Overall organisation still remains good. Outer convective bands are
weakening but inner bands continue to wrap tightly around llcc.
Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere.
Shear remains minimal. SST about 28C. Vaianu is expected to weaken
beyound 25S due to cooler SSTs and increased shear aloft. Dvorak
analysis based on centre embedded in LG yielding DT=4.5. PT=MET=4.5,
thus T4.5/4.5/S0.5/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southeast by a
deep northwest steering flow. Global models generally agree on this
with graduall weakening.
 
FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 25.0S 174.3W mov ESE at 08kt with 65
kt close to the centre.  
24hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 26.4S 171.5W mov SE at 08kt with 60 kt
close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 160000 UTC near 27.7S 169.7W mov SE at 08kt with 50kt
close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 161200 UTC near 28.9S 168.7W mov SE at 08kt with 40kt
close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU
will be issued around 142000 UTC.




** WTPS11 NFFN 141200     ***

PART 02


4.5,

THUS T4.5/4.5/S0.5/24HRS. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A

DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS

WITH GRADUALL WEAKENING.

 

FORECAST:

12HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 25.0S 174.3W MOV ESE AT 08KT WITH 65

KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.  

24HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 26.4S 171.5W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 60 KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.


OUTLOOK:

36HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 27.7S 169.7W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 50KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

48HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC NEAR 28.9S 168.7W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 40KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU

WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 142000 UTC.


END PART 02 OF 02




** WTPS11 NFFN 141200     ***
PART 02


4.5,

THUS T4.5/4.5/S0.5/24HRS. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A

DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS

WITH GRADUALL WEAKENING.

 

FORECAST:

12HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 25.0S 174.3W MOV ESE AT 08KT WITH 65

KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.  

24HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 26.4S 171.5W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 60 KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.


OUTLOOK:

36HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 27.7S 169.7W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 50KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

48HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC NEAR 28.9S 168.7W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 40KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU

WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 142000 UTC.


END PART 02 OF 02




** WTPS11 NFFN 141200     ***
PART 01


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

FEB 14/1417 UTC 2006 UTC.


TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU [965HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7 SOUTH

174.2 WEST AT 14012600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS

IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING

SOUTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO

THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150

MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND

WITHIN 100 MILES ELSEWHERE.    


OVERALL ORGANISATION STILL REMAINS GOOD. OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE

WEAKENING BUT INNER BANDS CONTINUE TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC.

OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO SOUTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.

SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL. SST ABOUT 28C. VAIANU IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN

BEYOUND 25S DUE TO COOLER SSTS AND INCREASED SHEAR ALOFT. DVORAK

ANALYSIS BASED ON CENTRE EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDING DT=4.5. PT=MET=


END PART 01