** WTIN20 DEMS 140603 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 14-02-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA . THE RIDGE LINE PASSES OVER 5 DEG. N OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ---- ** WTPS11 NFFN 140600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A17 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 14/0803 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 23.6 South 175.5 West at 140600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving southeast about 10 knots. Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre, over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 150 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 100 miles elsewhere. Overall organisation remains good. Convective bands continue to wrap tightly around llcc but system still struggling to form a banding eye. Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere. Shear remains minimal. SST about 28C. Further intensification possible as shear to south remains weak but system is expected to beyound 25S due to cooler SSTs. Dvorak analysis based on centre embedded in MG yielding DT=4.0. PT=MET=4.5, thus T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southeast by a deep northwest steering flow. Global models generally agree on this with possible further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 24.6S 174.3W mov SE at 08kt with 70 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 26.0S 172.9W mov SE at 08kt with 60 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 27.3S 171.3W mov SE at 08kt with 50kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 160600 UTC near 28.7S 169.8W mov SE at 08kt with 40kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 141400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 140600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A17 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 14/0803 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 23.6 South 175.5 West at 140600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving southeast about 10 knots. Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre, over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 150 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 100 miles elsewhere. Overall organisation remains good. Convective bands continue to wrap tightly around llcc but system still struggling to form a banding eye. Outflow remains good to south and east but restricted elsewhere. Shear remains minimal. SST about 28C. Further intensification possible as shear to south remains weak but system is expected to beyound 25S due to cooler SSTs. Dvorak analysis based on centre embedded in MG yielding DT=4.0. PT=MET=4.5, thus T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southeast by a deep northwest steering flow. Global models generally agree on this with possible further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 24.6S 174.3W mov SE at 08kt with 70 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 26.0S 172.9W mov SE at 08kt with 60 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 27.3S 171.3W mov SE at 08kt with 50kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 160600 UTC near 28.7S 169.8W mov SE at 08kt with 40kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 141400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 140600 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 14/0803 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU [965HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6 SOUTH 175.5 WEST AT 140600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC BUT SYSTEM STILL STRUGGLING TO FORM A BANDING EYE. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO SOUTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL. SST ABOUT 28C. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE AS SHEAR TO SOUTH REMAINS WEAK BUT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEYOUND 25S DUE TO COOLER SSTS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CENTRE EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDING DT=4.0. PT=MET= END PART 01 ** WTPS11 NFFN 140600 *** PART 02 4.5, THUS T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS WITH POSSIBLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 24.6S 174.3W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 26.0S 172.9W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC NEAR 27.3S 171.3W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC NEAR 28.7S 169.8W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 141400 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTPS31 PGTW 140900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 175.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 175.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 24.5S 174.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 25.8S 172.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 27.1S 170.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 28.2S 168.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 175.2W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH- EAST. INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PAST TAU 12 WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIG- NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.//