** WTSR20 WSSS 131800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPS11 NFFN 140000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A16 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 14/0157 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 22.7 South 176.3 West at 140000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone now moving southeast about 08 knots. Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to the centre possibly increasing to 75 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre, over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere. Overall organisation remains good, despite brief entrainment of dry air. Convective bands continue to wrap tightly around llcc. Cyclone struggling to form a banding eye under diurnal influence. Outflow good to south but restricted elsewhere. Shear remains minimal. SST about 28C. Further intensification possible if shear to south remains weak. Dvorak analysis based on centre embedded in LG yielding DT=4.5. PT=MET=4.5, thus T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southeast by a deep northwest steering flow. Global models generally agree on this with possible further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 23.9S 175.2W mov SE at 08kt with 75 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 25.1S 174.1W mov SE at 08kt with 75 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 26.2S 172.9W mov SE at 08kt with 60kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 160000 UTC near 27.6S 171.9W mov SE at 08kt with 50kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 140800 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 140000 *** PART 02 4.5, THUS T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A DEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS WITH POSSIBLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 23.9S 175.2W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 75 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 25.1S 174.1W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 75 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 26.2S 172.9W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC NEAR 27.6S 171.9W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140800 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTPS11 NFFN 140000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A16 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 14/0157 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 22.7 South 176.3 West at 140000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone now moving southeast about 08 knots. Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to the centre possibly increasing to 75 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre, over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere. Overall organisation remains good, despite brief entrainment of dry air. Convective bands continue to wrap tightly around llcc. Cyclone struggling to form a banding eye under diurnal influence. Outflow good to south but restricted elsewhere. Shear remains minimal. SST about 28C. Further intensification possible if shear to south remains weak. Dvorak analysis based on centre embedded in LG yielding DT=4.5. PT=MET=4.5, thus T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southeast by a deep northwest steering flow. Global models generally agree on this with possible further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 23.9S 175.2W mov SE at 08kt with 75 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 25.1S 174.1W mov SE at 08kt with 75 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 26.2S 172.9W mov SE at 08kt with 60kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 160000 UTC near 27.6S 171.9W mov SE at 08kt with 50kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 140800 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 140000 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 14/0157 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU [965HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7 SOUTH 176.3 WEST AT 140000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 08 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD, DESPITE BRIEF ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR. CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. CYCLONE STRUGGLING TO FORM A BANDING EYE UNDER DIURNAL INFLUENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL. SST ABOUT 28C. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE IF SHEAR TO SOUTH REMAINS WEAK. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CENTRE EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDING DT=4.5. PT=MET= END PART 01