** WTPS11 NFFN 131800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A15 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 13/2015 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 22.1 South 176.8 West at 131800 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 22.1S 176.8W at 131800 UTC. Cyclone moving south at about 08 knots and expected to eventually turn southeast in the next 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to the centre increasing to 80 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre, over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere. Overall organisation increasing, gradually, past 6 hours. Convective bands wrapping tighter around llcc. Outflow good to north and south but restricted elsewhere. Shear remains minimal. SST in the area is about 28-29. Further intensification anticipated. Dvorak analysis based on centre embedded in B yielding DT=5.0. PT=MET=4.5, thus T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southward by a deep northerly steering flow with an eventual southeast turn is expected in the next 12 hours. Global models generally agree on this with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 23.2S 176.3W mov SE at 08kt with 80 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 24.1S 175.7W mov SE at 08kt with 80 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 25.1S 174.7W mov SE at 07kt with 70kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 26.4S 173.6W mov SE at 07kt with 50kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 140200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 131800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A15 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 13/2015 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 22.1 South 176.8 West at 131800 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 22.1S 176.8W at 131800 UTC. Cyclone moving south at about 08 knots and expected to eventually turn southeast in the next 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to the centre increasing to 80 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre, over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere. Overall organisation increasing, gradually, past 6 hours. Convective bands wrapping tighter around llcc. Outflow good to north and south but restricted elsewhere. Shear remains minimal. SST in the area is about 28-29. Further intensification anticipated. Dvorak analysis based on centre embedded in B yielding DT=5.0. PT=MET=4.5, thus T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southward by a deep northerly steering flow with an eventual southeast turn is expected in the next 12 hours. Global models generally agree on this with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 23.2S 176.3W mov SE at 08kt with 80 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 24.1S 175.7W mov SE at 08kt with 80 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 25.1S 174.7W mov SE at 07kt with 70kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 26.4S 173.6W mov SE at 07kt with 50kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 140200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 131800 *** PART 02 4.5, THUS T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARD BY A DEEP NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW WITH AN EVENTUAL SOUTHEAST TURN IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC NEAR 23.2S 176.3W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 80 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 24.1S 175.7W MOV SE AT 08KT WITH 80 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 25.1S 174.7W MOV SE AT 07KT WITH 70KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC NEAR 26.4S 173.6W MOV SE AT 07KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140200 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTPS11 NFFN 131800 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 13/2015 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU [965HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1 SOUTH 176.8 WEST AT 131800 UTC. POSITION FAIR. REPEAT POSITION 22.1S 176.8W AT 131800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. OVERALL ORGANISATION INCREASING, GRADUALLY, PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 28-29. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ANTICIPATED. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CENTRE EMBEDDED IN B YIELDING DT=5.0. PT=MET= END PART 01 ** WTPS31 PGTW 132100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 22.3S 176.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.3S 176.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 23.5S 176.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 24.6S 176.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 25.9S 175.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 27.5S 174.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 176.8W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 11P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE STEERING RIDGE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS CONTINUED SUPPRESSION OF STORM OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS DUE TO AN IMPINGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE STORM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY HOWEVER DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCE AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT CREATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF TC 11P. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN NEAR TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.//