** WTSR20 WSSS 130600 ***
NO STORM WARNING=




** WTPS11 NFFN 131200     ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A14 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 13/1345 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 21.7 South
177.0 West at 131200 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 21.7S 177.0W
at 131200 UTC. Cyclone moving south at about 08 knots and expected to
eventually turn southeast in the next 12 to 24 hours. Cyclone
intensifying.Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to the centre
increasing to 80 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over
63 knots within 20 miles of centre. Expect winds over 47 knots within
40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in
sectors from north through                east to southwest and
within 80 miles elsewhere.    

System intensifying and overall organisation improving. LLCC is
difficult to locate and remains embedded. Centre placed over a warm
spot[CMG] appearing in the latest EIR imagery. Outflow restricted to
the northwest but good elsewhere. Shear remains minimal. SST in the
area is about 28-29. Further intensification anticipated and
supported by shortwave trough and diurnal influence overnight. Dvorak
analysis based embedded centre of CMG surr by W yielding DT=5.0.
PT=MET=4.5, FT based on PT thus T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24hrs. Cyclone is being
steered southward by a deep northerly steering flow. An eventual
southeast turn is expected in the next 24 hours. Global models
generally agree on this with further intensification.
 
FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 23.1S 176.9W mov S at 07kt with 75 kt
close to the centre.  
24hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 24.0S 176.7W mov S at 07kt with 70 kt
close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 25.0S 176.0W mov SSE at 06kt with 60kt
close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 26.0S 174.8W mov SSE at 06kt with 50kt
close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU
will be issued around 132000 UTC. 




** WTPS11 NFFN 131200 ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A14 issued from RSMC NADI

Feb 13/1345 UTC 2006 UTC.



Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 21.7 South

177.0 West at 131200 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 21.7S 177.0W

at 131200 UTC. Cyclone moving south at about 08 knots and expected to

eventually turn southeast in the next 12 to 24 hours. Cyclone

intensifying.Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to the centre

increasing to 80 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over

63 knots within 20 miles of centre. Expect winds over 47 knots within

40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in

sectors from north through                east to southwest and

within 80 miles elsewhere.    



System intensifying and overall organisation improving. LLCC is

difficult to locate and remains embedded. Centre placed over a warm

spot[CMG] appearing in the latest EIR imagery. Outflow restricted to

the northwest but good elsewhere. Shear remains minimal. SST in the

area is about 28-29. Further intensification anticipated and

supported by shortwave trough and diurnal influence overnight. Dvorak

analysis based embedded centre of CMG surr by W yielding DT=5.0.

PT=MET=4.5, FT based on PT thus T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24hrs. Cyclone is being

steered southward by a deep northerly steering flow. An eventual

southeast turn is expected in the next 24 hours. Global models

generally agree on this with further intensification.

 

FORECAST:

12hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 23.1S 176.9W mov S at 07kt with 75 kt

close to the centre.  

24hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 24.0S 176.7W mov S at 07kt with 70 kt

close to the centre.



OUTLOOK:

36hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 25.0S 176.0W mov SSE at 06kt with 60kt

close to the centre.

48hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 26.0S 174.8W mov SSE at 06kt with 50kt

close to the centre.



The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU

will be issued around 132000 UTC. 




** WTPS11 NFFN 131200     ***

PART 01


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

FEB 13/1345 UTC 2006 UTC.


TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU [965HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7 SOUTH

177.0 WEST AT 131200 UTC. POSITION FAIR. REPEAT POSITION 21.7S 177.0W

AT 131200 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO

EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. CYCLONE

INTENSIFYING.EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE

INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER

63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN

40 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN

SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH                EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND

WITHIN 80 MILES ELSEWHERE.    


SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND OVERALL ORGANISATION IMPROVING. LLCC IS

DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND REMAINS EMBEDDED. CENTRE PLACED OVER A WARM

SPOT[CMG] APPEARING IN THE LATEST EIR IMAGERY. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO

THE NORTHWEST BUT GOOD ELSEWHERE. SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL. SST IN THE

AREA IS ABOUT 28-29. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ANTICIPATED AND

SUPPORTED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DIURNAL INFLUENCE OVERNIGHT. DVORAK

ANALYSIS BASED EMBEDDED CENTRE OF CMG SURR BY W YIELDING DT=5.0.

PT=MET=


END PART 01




** WTPS11 NFFN 131200     ***

PART 02


4.5, FT BASED ON PT THUS T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS. CYCLONE IS BEING

STEERED SOUTHWARD BY A DEEP NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. AN EVENTUAL

SOUTHEAST TURN IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS

GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

 

FORECAST:

12HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC NEAR 23.1S 176.9W MOV S AT 07KT WITH 75 KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.  

24HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 24.0S 176.7W MOV S AT 07KT WITH 70 KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.


OUTLOOK:

36HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 25.0S 176.0W MOV SSE AT 06KT WITH 60KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

48HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC NEAR 26.0S 174.8W MOV SSE AT 06KT WITH 50KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU

WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 132000 UTC. 


END PART 02 OF 02