** WTIN20 DEMS 130630 COR *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-02-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED WITH MODERATE TO INTENSIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND OVER INDIAN OCEAN. THE RIDGE LINE PASSES OVER 5 DEG. N INDIAN REGION (.) ---- ** WTPS11 NFFN 130600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A13 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 13/0816 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [970hPa] centre was located near 20.6 South 176.8 West at 130600 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 20.6S 176.8W at 130600 UTC. Cyclone moving south at about 05 knots and expected to eventually turn southeast in the next 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 65 knots close to the centre increasing to 70 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre. Expect winds over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere. System intensifying with overall organisation improving. LLCC has now moved under dense cloud cover. Vaianu lies under the 250-hPa ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow restricted to the northwest but good elsewhere. Shear remains minimal. SST in the area is about 28-29. Further intensification anticipated and supported by shortwave trough and diurnal influence. Dvorak analysis based embedded centre of LG surr by Black yielding DT=5.0. PT=MET=4.5, FT based on PT thus T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southward by a deep northerly steering flow. An eventual southeast turn is expected in the next 24 hours. Global models generally agree on this with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 21.6S 176.8W mov S at 05kt with 65 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 22.4S 176.5W mov S at 05kt with 70 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 24.2S 176.3W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 25.3S 175.3W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 131400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 130600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A13 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 13/0816 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [970hPa] centre was located near 20.6 South 176.8 West at 130600 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 20.6S 176.8W at 130600 UTC. Cyclone moving south at about 05 knots and expected to eventually turn southeast in the next 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 65 knots close to the centre increasing to 70 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre. Expect winds over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere. System intensifying with overall organisation improving. LLCC has now moved under dense cloud cover. Vaianu lies under the 250-hPa ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow restricted to the northwest but good elsewhere. Shear remains minimal. SST in the area is about 28-29. Further intensification anticipated and supported by shortwave trough and diurnal influence. Dvorak analysis based embedded centre of LG surr by Black yielding DT=5.0. PT=MET=4.5, FT based on PT thus T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southward by a deep northerly steering flow. An eventual southeast turn is expected in the next 24 hours. Global models generally agree on this with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 21.6S 176.8W mov S at 05kt with 65 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 22.4S 176.5W mov S at 05kt with 70 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 24.2S 176.3W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 25.3S 175.3W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 131400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 130600 *** PART 02 4.5, FT BASED ON PT THUS T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARD BY A DEEP NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. AN EVENTUAL SOUTHEAST TURN IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC NEAR 21.6S 176.8W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC NEAR 22.4S 176.5W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 24.2S 176.3W MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC NEAR 25.3S 175.3W MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 131400 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTPS11 NFFN 130600 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 13/0816 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU [970HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6 SOUTH 176.8 WEST AT 130600 UTC. POSITION FAIR. REPEAT POSITION 20.6S 176.8W AT 130600 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM INTENSIFYING WITH OVERALL ORGANISATION IMPROVING. LLCC HAS NOW MOVED UNDER DENSE CLOUD COVER. VAIANU LIES UNDER THE 250-HPA RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST BUT GOOD ELSEWHERE. SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 28-29. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ANTICIPATED AND SUPPORTED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DIURNAL INFLUENCE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED EMBEDDED CENTRE OF LG SURR BY BLACK YIELDING DT=5.0. PT=MET= END PART 01 ** WTPS31 PGTW 130900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 21.0S 176.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 176.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 22.4S 176.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 23.3S 176.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 24.3S 175.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 25.4S 174.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 176.7W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 11P WILL TRACK POLEWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A SUPPRESSION OF STORM OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN IMPINGING TROUGH AND DEVELOPING LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF TC 11P. THE STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO DETERIORATING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//