** WTSR20 WSSS 121800 ***
NO STORM WARNING=




** WTPS11 NFFN 130000     ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A12 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 13/0149 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 20.1 South
176.8 West at 130000 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT EIR and
VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports.  Repeat
position 20.1S 176.8W at 130000 UTC. Cyclone moving south-southwest
at about 05 knots but is expected to eventually turn southeast uin
the next 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average
winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65
knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30
miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in
sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles
elsewhere.    

Overall organisation good. Low-level circulation exposed in west
semi-circle. Entrainment of environmental air together with diurnal
influence affecting further development. Cyclone lies under the
250-hPa ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow good to south and north
and restricted elsewhere. Shear remains minimal. SST in the area is
about 29-30C. Further intensification anticipated. Dvorak analysis
based on a 1.3 wrap on log10 spiral. yielding DT=4.0. PT=MET=4.0,
thus T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southward by a
deep northerly steering flow. An eventual  southeast turn is expected
in the next 24 hours. Global models generally agree on this with
further intensification.
 
FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.3S 176.18W mov S at 06kt with 65 kt
close to the centre.  
24hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 22.0S 176.8W mov S at 05kt with 65 kt
close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 22.9S 176.2W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt
close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 23.9S 175.2W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt
close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU
will be issued around 130800 UTC. 




** WTPS11 NFFN 130000 ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A12 issued from RSMC NADI

Feb 13/0149 UTC 2006 UTC.



Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 20.1 South

176.8 West at 130000 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT EIR and

VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports.  Repeat

position 20.1S 176.8W at 130000 UTC. Cyclone moving south-southwest

at about 05 knots but is expected to eventually turn southeast uin

the next 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average

winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65

knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30

miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in

sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles

elsewhere.    



Overall organisation good. Low-level circulation exposed in west

semi-circle. Entrainment of environmental air together with diurnal

influence affecting further development. Cyclone lies under the

250-hPa ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow good to south and north

and restricted elsewhere. Shear remains minimal. SST in the area is

about 29-30C. Further intensification anticipated. Dvorak analysis

based on a 1.3 wrap on log10 spiral. yielding DT=4.0. PT=MET=4.0,

thus T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southward by a

deep northerly steering flow. An eventual  southeast turn is expected

in the next 24 hours. Global models generally agree on this with

further intensification.

 

FORECAST:

12hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.3S 176.18W mov S at 06kt with 65 kt

close to the centre.  

24hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 22.0S 176.8W mov S at 05kt with 65 kt

close to the centre.



OUTLOOK:

36hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 22.9S 176.2W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt

close to the centre.

48hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 23.9S 175.2W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt

close to the centre.



The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU

will be issued around 130800 UTC. 




** WTPS11 NFFN 130000     ***

PART 01


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

FEB 13/0149 UTC 2006 UTC.


TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU [975HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1 SOUTH

176.8 WEST AT 130000 UTC. POSITION FAIR AND BASED ON MTSAT EIR AND

VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  REPEAT

POSITION 20.1S 176.8W AT 130000 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST

AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST UIN

THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE

WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 65

KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30

MILES OF CENTRE AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN

SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 80 MILES

ELSEWHERE.    


OVERALL ORGANISATION GOOD. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EXPOSED IN WEST

SEMI-CIRCLE. ENTRAINMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL AIR TOGETHER WITH DIURNAL

INFLUENCE AFFECTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. CYCLONE LIES UNDER THE

250-HPA RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH AND NORTH

AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL. SST IN THE AREA IS

ABOUT 29-30C. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ANTICIPATED. DVORAK ANALYSIS

BASED ON A 1.3 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL. YIELDING DT=4.0. PT=MET=


END PART 01




** WTPS11 NFFN 130000     ***

PART 02


4.0,

THUS T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARD BY A

DEEP NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. AN EVENTUAL  SOUTHEAST TURN IS EXPECTED

IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS WITH

FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

 

FORECAST:

12HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC NEAR 21.3S 176.18W MOV S AT 06KT WITH 65 KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.  

24HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC NEAR 22.0S 176.8W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 65 KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.


OUTLOOK:

36HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 22.9S 176.2W MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 60KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

48HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC NEAR 23.9S 175.2W MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 60KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU

WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130800 UTC. 


END PART 02 OF 02