** WTPS31 PGTW 122100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/121951ZFEB2006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 19.1S 177.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 177.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.2S 177.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 21.2S 177.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 22.1S 177.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 23.2S 176.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 177.1W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.// ** WTPS11 NFFN 121800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A11 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/2002 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 19.1 South 176.9 West at 121800 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 19.1S 176.9W at 121800 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 05 knots but is expected to turn south in the next 6 to 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere. Overall organisation improved past 24 hours though development steady past 6 hours. Warm air intrusion evident past 6 hours. Some warming of convective tops occuring. The system lies under the 250-hPa ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow good to south and north and restricted elsewhere. CIMMS indicates mininal shear over the cyclone. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Dvorak analysis based on LG embedded centre yielding DT=4.5. PT=MET=4.0, thus T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered by a deep north to northeast steering flow. A gradual southward turn is expected in the next 6 to 12 hours. Global models generally agree on this with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 130600 UTC near 20.3S 177.1W mov S at 06kt with 65 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 21.4S 177.1W mov S at 06kt with 65 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 22.4S 177.3W mov S at 06kt with 60kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 23.5S 176.9W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 130200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 121800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A11 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/2002 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 19.1 South 176.9 West at 121800 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 19.1S 176.9W at 121800 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 05 knots but is expected to turn south in the next 6 to 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere. Overall organisation improved past 24 hours though development steady past 6 hours. Warm air intrusion evident past 6 hours. Some warming of convective tops occuring. The system lies under the 250-hPa ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow good to south and north and restricted elsewhere. CIMMS indicates mininal shear over the cyclone. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Dvorak analysis based on LG embedded centre yielding DT=4.5. PT=MET=4.0, thus T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered by a deep north to northeast steering flow. A gradual southward turn is expected in the next 6 to 12 hours. Global models generally agree on this with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 130600 UTC near 20.3S 177.1W mov S at 06kt with 65 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 21.4S 177.1W mov S at 06kt with 65 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 22.4S 177.3W mov S at 06kt with 60kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 23.5S 176.9W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 130200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 121800 *** PART 02 4.0, THUS T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS. CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP NORTH TO NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC NEAR 20.3S 177.1W MOV S AT 06KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC NEAR 21.4S 177.1W MOV S AT 06KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC NEAR 22.4S 177.3W MOV S AT 06KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC NEAR 23.5S 176.9W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130200 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTPS11 NFFN 121800 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 12/2002 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU [975HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1 SOUTH 176.9 WEST AT 121800 UTC. POSITION FAIR AND BASED ON MTSAT/EIR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. REPEAT POSITION 19.1S 176.9W AT 121800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. OVERALL ORGANISATION IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS THOUGH DEVELOPMENT STEADY PAST 6 HOURS. WARM AIR INTRUSION EVIDENT PAST 6 HOURS. SOME WARMING OF CONVECTIVE TOPS OCCURING. THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER THE 250-HPA RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO SOUTH AND NORTH AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CIMMS INDICATES MININAL SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON LG EMBEDDED CENTRE YIELDING DT=4.5. PT=MET= END PART 01