** WTSR20 WSSS 120600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/1347 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 18.7 South 176.5 West at 121200 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 18.7S 176.5W at 121200 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 06 knots but is expected to turn south in the next 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere. Convection wraps closer and tighter to llcc and Vaianu still struggles to form a banding eye. The system remains embedded in the 250hPa subtropical ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow remains good in all quadrants. CIMMS indicates mininal shear over the cyclone and its forecast track. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Dvorak analysis based on 1.0 wrap on log10 spiral gives DT=4.0 while PT=MET=3.5, yielding T3.5/4.0/D1.5/24hrs. The system is currently steered southwest by a mid-level ridge initially but is expected to curve southwards following an broad upper trough from the west. Global models agree on an initial southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 19.7S 177.0W mov SSW at 05kt with 65 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.2S 177.7W mov SSW at 07kt with 65 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 22.0S 176.8W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 22.4S 176.2W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 122000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/1347 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 18.7 South 176.5 West at 121200 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 18.7S 176.5W at 121200 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 06 knots but is expected to turn south in the next 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere. Convection wraps closer and tighter to llcc and Vaianu still struggles to form a banding eye. The system remains embedded in the 250hPa subtropical ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow remains good in all quadrants. CIMMS indicates mininal shear over the cyclone and its forecast track. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Dvorak analysis based on 1.0 wrap on log10 spiral gives DT=4.0 while PT=MET=3.5, yielding T3.5/4.0/D1.5/24hrs. The system is currently steered southwest by a mid-level ridge initially but is expected to curve southwards following an broad upper trough from the west. Global models agree on an initial southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 19.7S 177.0W mov SSW at 05kt with 65 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.2S 177.7W mov SSW at 07kt with 65 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 22.0S 176.8W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 22.4S 176.2W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 122000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** PART 02 3.5, YIELDING T3.5/4.0/D1.5/24HRS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STEERED SOUTHWEST BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY BUT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS FOLLOWING AN BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INITIAL SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC NEAR 19.7S 177.0W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC NEAR 21.2S 177.7W MOV SSW AT 07KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC NEAR 22.0S 176.8W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 22.4S 176.2W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 122000 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 12/1347 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU [975HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7 SOUTH 176.5 WEST AT 121200 UTC. POSITION FAIR AND BASED ON MTSAT/EIR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. REPEAT POSITION 18.7S 176.5W AT 121200 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. CONVECTION WRAPS CLOSER AND TIGHTER TO LLCC AND VAIANU STILL STRUGGLES TO FORM A BANDING EYE. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE 250HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. CIMMS INDICATES MININAL SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE AND ITS FORECAST TRACK. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.0 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL GIVES DT=4.0 WHILE PT=MET= END PART 01 ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/1347 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 18.7 South 176.5 West at 121200 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 18.7S 176.5W at 121200 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 06 knots but is expected to turn south in the next 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere. Convection wraps closer and tighter to llcc and Vaianu still struggles to form a banding eye. The system remains embedded in the 250hPa subtropical ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow remains good in all quadrants. CIMMS indicates mininal shear over the cyclone and its forecast track. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Dvorak analysis based on 1.0 wrap on log10 spiral gives DT=4.0 while PT=MET=3.5, yielding T3.5/4.0/D1.5/24hrs. The system is currently steered southwest by a mid-level ridge initially but is expected to curve southwards following an broad upper trough from the west. Global models agree on an initial southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 19.7S 177.0W mov SSW at 05kt with 65 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.2S 177.7W mov SSW at 07kt with 65 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 22.0S 176.8W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 22.4S 176.2W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 122000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/1347 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 18.7 South 176.5 West at 121200 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 18.7S 176.5W at 121200 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 06 knots but is expected to turn south in the next 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere. Convection wraps closer and tighter to llcc and Vaianu still struggles to form a banding eye. The system remains embedded in the 250hPa subtropical ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow remains good in all quadrants. CIMMS indicates mininal shear over the cyclone and its forecast track. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Dvorak analysis based on 1.0 wrap on log10 spiral gives DT=4.0 while PT=MET=3.5, yielding T3.5/4.0/D1.5/24hrs. The system is currently steered southwest by a mid-level ridge initially but is expected to curve southwards following an broad upper trough from the west. Global models agree on an initial southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 19.7S 177.0W mov SSW at 05kt with 65 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.2S 177.7W mov SSW at 07kt with 65 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 22.0S 176.8W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 22.4S 176.2W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 122000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** PART 02 3.5, YIELDING T3.5/4.0/D1.5/24HRS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STEERED SOUTHWEST BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY BUT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS FOLLOWING AN BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INITIAL SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC NEAR 19.7S 177.0W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC NEAR 21.2S 177.7W MOV SSW AT 07KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC NEAR 22.0S 176.8W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 22.4S 176.2W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 122000 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 12/1347 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU [975HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7 SOUTH 176.5 WEST AT 121200 UTC. POSITION FAIR AND BASED ON MTSAT/EIR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. REPEAT POSITION 18.7S 176.5W AT 121200 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. CONVECTION WRAPS CLOSER AND TIGHTER TO LLCC AND VAIANU STILL STRUGGLES TO FORM A BANDING EYE. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE 250HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. CIMMS INDICATES MININAL SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE AND ITS FORECAST TRACK. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.0 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL GIVES DT=4.0 WHILE PT=MET= END PART 01 ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/1347 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 18.7 South 176.5 West at 121200 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 18.7S 176.5W at 121200 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 06 knots but is expected to turn south in the next 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere. Convection wraps closer and tighter to llcc and Vaianu still struggles to form a banding eye. The system remains embedded in the 250hPa subtropical ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow remains good in all quadrants. CIMMS indicates mininal shear over the cyclone and its forecast track. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Dvorak analysis based on 1.0 wrap on log10 spiral gives DT=4.0 while PT=MET=3.5, yielding T3.5/4.0/D1.5/24hrs. The system is currently steered southwest by a mid-level ridge initially but is expected to curve southwards following an broad upper trough from the west. Global models agree on an initial southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 19.7S 177.0W mov SSW at 05kt with 65 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.2S 177.7W mov SSW at 07kt with 65 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 22.0S 176.8W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 22.4S 176.2W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 122000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/1347 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 18.7 South 176.5 West at 121200 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 18.7S 176.5W at 121200 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 06 knots but is expected to turn south in the next 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere. Convection wraps closer and tighter to llcc and Vaianu still struggles to form a banding eye. The system remains embedded in the 250hPa subtropical ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow remains good in all quadrants. CIMMS indicates mininal shear over the cyclone and its forecast track. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Dvorak analysis based on 1.0 wrap on log10 spiral gives DT=4.0 while PT=MET=3.5, yielding T3.5/4.0/D1.5/24hrs. The system is currently steered southwest by a mid-level ridge initially but is expected to curve southwards following an broad upper trough from the west. Global models agree on an initial southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 19.7S 177.0W mov SSW at 05kt with 65 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.2S 177.7W mov SSW at 07kt with 65 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 22.0S 176.8W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 22.4S 176.2W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 122000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** PART 02 3.5, YIELDING T3.5/4.0/D1.5/24HRS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STEERED SOUTHWEST BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY BUT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS FOLLOWING AN BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INITIAL SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC NEAR 19.7S 177.0W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC NEAR 21.2S 177.7W MOV SSW AT 07KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC NEAR 22.0S 176.8W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 22.4S 176.2W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 122000 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A10 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/1347 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 18.7 South 176.5 West at 121200 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 18.7S 176.5W at 121200 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 06 knots but is expected to turn south in the next 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere. Convection wraps closer and tighter to llcc and Vaianu still struggles to form a banding eye. The system remains embedded in the 250hPa subtropical ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow remains good in all quadrants. CIMMS indicates mininal shear over the cyclone and its forecast track. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Dvorak analysis based on 1.0 wrap on log10 spiral gives DT=4.0 while PT=MET=3.5, yielding T3.5/4.0/D1.5/24hrs. The system is currently steered southwest by a mid-level ridge initially but is expected to curve southwards following an broad upper trough from the west. Global models agree on an initial southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 19.7S 177.0W mov SSW at 05kt with 65 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.2S 177.7W mov SSW at 07kt with 65 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 22.0S 176.8W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 22.4S 176.2W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 122000 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** PART 02 3.5, YIELDING T3.5/4.0/D1.5/24HRS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STEERED SOUTHWEST BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY BUT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS FOLLOWING AN BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INITIAL SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC NEAR 19.7S 177.0W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC NEAR 21.2S 177.7W MOV SSW AT 07KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC NEAR 22.0S 176.8W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 22.4S 176.2W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 122000 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTPS11 NFFN 121200 *** PART 02 3.5, YIELDING T3.5/4.0/D1.5/24HRS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STEERED SOUTHWEST BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE INITIALLY BUT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS FOLLOWING AN BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INITIAL SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC NEAR 19.7S 177.0W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC NEAR 21.2S 177.7W MOV SSW AT 07KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC NEAR 22.0S 176.8W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC NEAR 22.4S 176.2W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 122000 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02