** WTIN20 DEMS 120610 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 12-02-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) SOUTH WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.) ---- ** WTIN20 DEMS 120610 COR *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 12-02-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF ANDAMAN SEA. SOUTH WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.) ---- ** WTPS11 NFFN 120600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/0818 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 18.3 South 176.4 West at 120600 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 18.3S 176.4W at 120600 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 06 knots but is expected to turn south in the next 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and within 80 miles elsewhere. System organisation has improved after initial supression due to diurnal influence around 0300 UTC. Convection wraps closer and tighter to llcc and Vaianu still struggles to form a banding eye. The system remains embedded in the 250hPa subtropical ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow remains good in all quadrants. CIMMS indicates mininal shear over the cyclone and its forecast track southwards. Vaianu is expected to further intensify as it moves southwards tonight, aided by diurnal changes and low environment shear. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Dvorak analysis based on 1.05 wrap on log10 spiral gives DT=PT=4.0 while MET=3.5, yielding T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24hrs. The system is steered southwest by a mid-level ridge located to the east for the next 12 hours and it is expected to curve southwards beyond 12 hours in response to an approaching broad upper trough from the west. Global models agree on an initial southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 121800 UTC near 19.3S 177.0W mov SSW at 05kt with 65 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 130600 UTC near 20.7S 177.2W mov SSW at 05kt with 70 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 21.9S 177.3W mov SSW at 05kt with 70kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 22.5S 176.8W mov S at 05kt with 70kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 121400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 120600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/0818 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 18.3 South 176.4 West at 120600 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 18.3S 176.4W at 120600 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 06 knots but is expected to turn south in the next 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and within 80 miles elsewhere. System organisation has improved after initial supression due to diurnal influence around 0300 UTC. Convection wraps closer and tighter to llcc and Vaianu still struggles to form a banding eye. The system remains embedded in the 250hPa subtropical ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow remains good in all quadrants. CIMMS indicates mininal shear over the cyclone and its forecast track southwards. Vaianu is expected to further intensify as it moves southwards tonight, aided by diurnal changes and low environment shear. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Dvorak analysis based on 1.05 wrap on log10 spiral gives DT=PT=4.0 while MET=3.5, yielding T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24hrs. The system is steered southwest by a mid-level ridge located to the east for the next 12 hours and it is expected to curve southwards beyond 12 hours in response to an approaching broad upper trough from the west. Global models agree on an initial southwest track with further intensification. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 121800 UTC near 19.3S 177.0W mov SSW at 05kt with 65 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 130600 UTC near 20.7S 177.2W mov SSW at 05kt with 70 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 21.9S 177.3W mov SSW at 05kt with 70kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 22.5S 176.8W mov S at 05kt with 70kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 121400 UTC. ** WTPS31 PGTW 120900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 176.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 176.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.3S 176.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.4S 177.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 21.2S 177.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 21.9S 176.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 176.4W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 11P INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK POLEWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.// ** WTPS11 NFFN 120600 *** PART 02 3.5, YIELDING T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS. THE SYSTEM IS STEERED SOUTHWEST BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS BEYOND 12 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INITIAL SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC NEAR 19.3S 177.0W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC NEAR 20.7S 177.2W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC NEAR 21.9S 177.3W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 70KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC NEAR 22.5S 176.8W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 70KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 121400 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTPS11 NFFN 120600 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 12/0818 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU [975HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3 SOUTH 176.4 WEST AT 120600 UTC. POSITION FAIR AND BASED ON MTSAT/EIR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. REPEAT POSITION 18.3S 176.4W AT 120600 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED AFTER INITIAL SUPRESSION DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCE AROUND 0300 UTC. CONVECTION WRAPS CLOSER AND TIGHTER TO LLCC AND VAIANU STILL STRUGGLES TO FORM A BANDING EYE. THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE 250HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. CIMMS INDICATES MININAL SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE AND ITS FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARDS. VAIANU IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARDS TONIGHT, AIDED BY DIURNAL CHANGES AND LOW ENVIRONMENT SHEAR. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.05 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL GIVES DT=PT=4.0 WHILE MET= END PART 01