** WTSR20 WSSS 111800 ***
NO STORM WARNING=




** WTPS01 NFFN 120000     ***
Storm Warning 015 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/0059 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [985hPa] centre was located near 18.1 South
175.9 West at 120000 UTC.  
Position poor.  
Repeat position 18.1S 175.9W at 120000 UTC.
Cyclone moving southwest at about 07 knots.  
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre increasing to
55 knots in the next 6 hours. 
Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre
   and winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre. 

Forecast position near 19.2S 176.8W at 121200 UTC              
              and near 19.7S 177.0W at 130000 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 014.




** WTPS01 NFFN 120000 ***
Storm Warning 015 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 12/0059 UTC 2006 UTC.



Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [985hPa] centre was located near 18.1 South

175.9 West at 120000 UTC.  

Position poor.  

Repeat position 18.1S 175.9W at 120000 UTC.

Cyclone moving southwest at about 07 knots.  

Cyclone intensifying.

Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre increasing to

55 knots in the next 6 hours. 

Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre

   and winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre. 



Forecast position near 19.2S 176.8W at 121200 UTC              

              and near 19.7S 177.0W at 130000 UTC.



All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to

send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use

normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc

at met dot gov dot fj.



This warning cancels and replaces warning 014.




** WTPS11 NFFN 120000     ***

PART 02


3.0, YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. THE SYSTEM IS STEERED

SOUTHWEST BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 24

HOURS AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS BEYOND 24 HOURS IN

RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL

MODELS AGREE ON AN INITIAL SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH FURTHER

INTENSIFICATION.

 

FORECAST:

12HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC NEAR 19.2S 176.8W MOV SW AT 07KT WITH 60 KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.  

24HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC NEAR 19.7S 177.0W MOV S AT 03KT WITH 60 KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.


OUTLOOK:

36HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC NEAR 20.6S 176.3W MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 60KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

48HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC NEAR 21.6S 176.1W MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 60KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU

WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 120800 UTC. 


END PART 02 OF 02




** WTPS11 NFFN 120000     ***

PART 01


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

FEB 12/0152 UTC 2006 UTC.


TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU [985HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1 SOUTH

175.9 WEST AT 120000 UTC. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON MTSAT/VIS WITH

ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  REPEAT POSITION 18.1S

175.9W AT 120000 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS. 

CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50

KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 55 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6

HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE AND WINDS

OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE.    


CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND AREAL COVERAGE HAS DECREASED IN THE LAST 6

HOURS AS VAIANU STRUGGLES TO FORM A BANDING EYE. HOWEVER, CIMMS

INDICATES THAT SHEAR HAS BECOME MINIMAL OVER THE CYCLONE AND A

PERSISTENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THE

SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM. VAIANU REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE 250HPA

SUNTROPICAL RIDGE IN A DIFFLUENT REGION. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT

29-30C. 

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON .95 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL GIVES DT=PT=3.5

WHILE MET=


END PART 01




** WTPS11 NFFN 120000     ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A8 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 12/0152 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [985hPa] centre was located near 18.1 South
175.9 West at 120000 UTC. Position poor and based on MTSAT/VIS with
animation and peripheral surface reports.  Repeat position 18.1S
175.9W at 120000 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 07 knots. 
Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 50
knots close to the centre, increasing to 55 knots in the next 6
hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and winds
over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre.    

Cloud tops have warmed and areal coverage has decreased in the last 6
hours as Vaianu struggles to form a banding eye. However, CIMMS
indicates that shear has become minimal over the cyclone and a
persistent equatorward outflow should maintain the intensity of the
system in the short term. Vaianu remains embedded in the 250hPa
suntropical ridge in a diffluent region. SST in the area is about
29-30C. 
Dvorak analysis based on .95 wrap on log10 spiral gives DT=PT=3.5
while MET=3.0, yielding T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. The system is steered
southwest by a mid-level ridge located to the east for the next 24
hours and it is expected to curve southwards beyond 24 hours in
response to an approaching broad upper trough from the west. Global
models agree on an initial southwest track with further
intensification.
 
FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 121200 UTC near 19.2S 176.8W mov SW at 07kt with 60 kt
close to the centre.  
24hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 19.7S 177.0W mov S at 03kt with 60 kt
close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 20.6S 176.3W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt
close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 21.6S 176.1W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt
close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU
will be issued around 120800 UTC. 




** WTPS11 NFFN 120000 ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A8 issued from RSMC NADI

Feb 12/0152 UTC 2006 UTC.



Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [985hPa] centre was located near 18.1 South

175.9 West at 120000 UTC. Position poor and based on MTSAT/VIS with

animation and peripheral surface reports.  Repeat position 18.1S

175.9W at 120000 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 07 knots. 

Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 50

knots close to the centre, increasing to 55 knots in the next 6

hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and winds

over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre.    



Cloud tops have warmed and areal coverage has decreased in the last 6

hours as Vaianu struggles to form a banding eye. However, CIMMS

indicates that shear has become minimal over the cyclone and a

persistent equatorward outflow should maintain the intensity of the

system in the short term. Vaianu remains embedded in the 250hPa

suntropical ridge in a diffluent region. SST in the area is about

29-30C. 

Dvorak analysis based on .95 wrap on log10 spiral gives DT=PT=3.5

while MET=3.0, yielding T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. The system is steered

southwest by a mid-level ridge located to the east for the next 24

hours and it is expected to curve southwards beyond 24 hours in

response to an approaching broad upper trough from the west. Global

models agree on an initial southwest track with further

intensification.

 

FORECAST:

12hrs valid at 121200 UTC near 19.2S 176.8W mov SW at 07kt with 60 kt

close to the centre.  

24hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 19.7S 177.0W mov S at 03kt with 60 kt

close to the centre.



OUTLOOK:

36hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 20.6S 176.3W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt

close to the centre.

48hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 21.6S 176.1W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt

close to the centre.



The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU

will be issued around 120800 UTC.