** WTPS01 NFFN 111800 *** Gale Warning 014 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 11/1909 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [990hPa] centre was located near 17.8 South 175.4 West at 111800 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 17.8S 175.4W at 111800 UTC. Cyclone moving southsouthwest at about 07 knots and expected to curve southwest. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 60 miles of centre. Forecast position near 18.9S 176.3W at 120600 UTC and near 19.6S 176.9W at 121800 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 013. ** WTPS01 NFFN 111800 *** Gale Warning 014 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 11/1909 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [990hPa] centre was located near 17.8 South 175.4 West at 111800 UTC. Position poor. Repeat position 17.8S 175.4W at 111800 UTC. Cyclone moving southsouthwest at about 07 knots and expected to curve southwest. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 60 miles of centre. Forecast position near 18.9S 176.3W at 120600 UTC and near 19.6S 176.9W at 121800 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 013. ** WTPS11 NFFN 111800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 11/1951 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [990hPa] centre was located near 17.8 South 175.4 West at 111800 UTC. Position poor and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 17.8S 175.4W at 111800 UTC. Cyclone moving southsouthwest at about 07 knots and expected to curve southwest. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds above 33 knots with 60 nautical miles of centre. TC Vaianu's overall organisation continues to improve despite 10 to 20 knots shear aloft. CIMMS indicates that the cyclone is moving into a decreasing shear zone and the increased equatorward outflow should maintain a positive growth curve for the system. LLCC still difficult to locate and placed near the southern edge of deep convection. The system lies just south of 250-hPa outflow in a diffluent region. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Dvorak analysis based on .60 wrap on log10 spiral gives DT=MET=PT=3.0, yielding T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24hrs. The system is steered southwest by a mid-level ridge to east for the next 24 hours and is expected to curve southeast beyond 48 hours in response to an approaching broad upper trough from the west. Global models agree on a southwest track with further intensification in the short term. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 120600 UTC near 18.9S 176.3W mov SSW at 07kt with 45 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 121800 UTC near 19.6S 176.9W mov SW at 05kt with 55 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 130600 UTC near 20.3S 176.7W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 21.3S 176.3W mov SSE at 06kt with 60kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 120200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 111800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 11/1951 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [990hPa] centre was located near 17.8 South 175.4 West at 111800 UTC. Position poor and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 17.8S 175.4W at 111800 UTC. Cyclone moving southsouthwest at about 07 knots and expected to curve southwest. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds above 33 knots with 60 nautical miles of centre. TC Vaianu's overall organisation continues to improve despite 10 to 20 knots shear aloft. CIMMS indicates that the cyclone is moving into a decreasing shear zone and the increased equatorward outflow should maintain a positive growth curve for the system. LLCC still difficult to locate and placed near the southern edge of deep convection. The system lies just south of 250-hPa outflow in a diffluent region. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Dvorak analysis based on .60 wrap on log10 spiral gives DT=MET=PT=3.0, yielding T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24hrs. The system is steered southwest by a mid-level ridge to east for the next 24 hours and is expected to curve southeast beyond 48 hours in response to an approaching broad upper trough from the west. Global models agree on a southwest track with further intensification in the short term. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 120600 UTC near 18.9S 176.3W mov SSW at 07kt with 45 kt close to the centre. 24hrs valid at 121800 UTC near 19.6S 176.9W mov SW at 05kt with 55 kt close to the centre. OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 130600 UTC near 20.3S 176.7W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre. 48hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 21.3S 176.3W mov SSE at 06kt with 60kt close to the centre. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 120200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 111800 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 11/1951 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU [990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8 SOUTH 175.4 WEST AT 111800 UTC. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON MTSAT/EIR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. REPEAT POSITION 17.8S 175.4W AT 111800 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHSOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 07 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWEST. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITH 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. TC VAIANU'S OVERALL ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE DESPITE 10 TO 20 KNOTS SHEAR ALOFT. CIMMS INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING INTO A DECREASING SHEAR ZONE AND THE INCREASED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN A POSITIVE GROWTH CURVE FOR THE SYSTEM. LLCC STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND PLACED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF 250-HPA OUTFLOW IN A DIFFLUENT REGION. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON .60 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL GIVES DT=MET=PT= END PART 01 ** WTPS11 NFFN 111800 *** PART 02 3.0, YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. THE SYSTEM IS STEERED SOUTHWEST BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHEAST BEYOND 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC NEAR 18.9S 176.3W MOV SSW AT 07KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC NEAR 19.6S 176.9W MOV SW AT 05KT WITH 55 KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC NEAR 20.3S 176.7W MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. 48HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC NEAR 21.3S 176.3W MOV SSE AT 06KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 120200 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTPS31 PGTW 112100 *** NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/111951ZFEB2006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (VAIANU) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 175.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 175.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 18.4S 176.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 19.2S 176.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.2S 177.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 21.3S 176.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 175.6W. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (VAIANU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 111800 *** GALE WARNING NO.21 FOR STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON ISSUED AT 5:00AM TODAY, 12 FEBRUARY 2006 (VALID UNTIL THE NEXT WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT 5PM TODAY). THE SURGE OF STRONGT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SEABOARDS OF LUZON AND VISAYAS AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF NORTHEASTERN MINDANAO. THE SEABOARDS OF LUZON WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS. WINDS OF 37 TO 65KPH (20 TO 35KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2.1 TO 5.0 METERS. MEANSHILE, THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL SEABOARDS OF VISAYAS AND NORTH- EASTERN SEABOARDS OF MINDANAO WILL BE CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAINS. WINDS OF 37 TO 65KPH (20 TO 35KNOTS) ARE EXPECTED AND SEA CONDITIONS WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2.1 TO 5.0 METERS. FISHING BOATS AND OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA WHILE BIGGER SEACRAFTS ARE ALERTED AGAINST MODERATE TO HIGH WAVES. WATCH FOR THE NEXT UPDATE TO BE ISSUED AT 5:00PM TODAY.