** WTPS01 NFFN 111200     ***
Gale Warning 013 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 11/1303 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [995hPa] centre was re-located near 17.4
South 174.9 West at 111200 UTC.  
Position poor.  
Repeat position 17.4S 174.9W at 111200 UTC.
Cyclone moving south at about 05 knots and expected to gradually
curve south-southwest later.  
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to
40 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. 

Expect winds over 33 knots within 60 miles of centre. 

Forecast position near 18.0S 176.3W at 120000 UTC              
              and near 18.7S 177.3W at 121200 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. For RSMC Nadi: VOS
reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679
6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 012.




** WTPS01 NFFN 111200 ***
Gale Warning 013 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 11/1303 UTC 2006 UTC.



Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [995hPa] centre was re-located near 17.4

South 174.9 West at 111200 UTC.  

Position poor.  

Repeat position 17.4S 174.9W at 111200 UTC.

Cyclone moving south at about 05 knots and expected to gradually

curve south-southwest later.  

Cyclone intensifying.

Expect sustained winds of 35 knots close to the centre increasing to

40 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. 



Expect winds over 33 knots within 60 miles of centre. 



Forecast position near 18.0S 176.3W at 120000 UTC              

              and near 18.7S 177.3W at 121200 UTC.



All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to

send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. For RSMC Nadi: VOS

reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679

6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.



This warning cancels and replaces warning 012.




** WTPS11 NFFN 111200 ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 issued from RSMC NADI

Feb 11/1414 UTC 2006 UTC.



Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [995hPa] centre was re-located near 17.4

South 174.9 West at 111200 UTC. Position poor and based on MTSTAT/EIR

with animation and peripheral surface reports.  Repeat position 17.4S

174.9W at 111200 UTC. Cyclone moving south at about 05 knots and

expected to gradually curve south-southwest later.  Cyclone

intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 35 knots

close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Expect winds above 33 knots with 60 nautical miles of centre.    



TC Vaianu's overall organisation continues to improve and is mainly

aided by diurnal changes and decreased shear aloft. LLCC still

difficult to locate and placed in the southeastern edge of deep

convection. Tops continues to cool and primary band now wraps tighter

and closer to llcc. The system still lies just south of upper 250-hPa

outflow. SST in the area is about 29-30C. 

Dvorak analysis based on .65 wrap on log10 spiral giving a T3.0.

PT=MET=3.0 Thus, T2.5/2.0/D0.5/06hrs. The system is steered generally

towards the south by a mid-level ridge to southeast. Vaianu is

expected intensify while moving southwards. Some global models agree

on a future southward track with further intensification. UKGC, EC

curves TC Vaianu slightly southwest before tracking it southwards.

 

FORECAST:

12hrs valid at 120000 UTC near 18.0S 176.3W mov SW at 08kt with 45 kt

close to the centre.  

24hrs valid at 121200 UTC near 18.7S 177.3W mov SW at 05kt with 55 kt

close to the centre.



OUTLOOK:

36hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 20.1S 176.6W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt

close to the centre.

48hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.0S 176.1W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt

close to the centre.



The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU

will be issued around 112000 UTC. 




** WTPS11 NFFN 111200     ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 11/1414 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [995hPa] centre was re-located near 17.4
South 174.9 West at 111200 UTC. Position poor and based on MTSTAT/EIR
with animation and peripheral surface reports.  Repeat position 17.4S
174.9W at 111200 UTC. Cyclone moving south at about 05 knots and
expected to gradually curve south-southwest later.  Cyclone
intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 35 knots
close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.
Expect winds above 33 knots with 60 nautical miles of centre.    

TC Vaianu's overall organisation continues to improve and is mainly
aided by diurnal changes and decreased shear aloft. LLCC still
difficult to locate and placed in the southeastern edge of deep
convection. Tops continues to cool and primary band now wraps tighter
and closer to llcc. The system still lies just south of upper 250-hPa
outflow. SST in the area is about 29-30C. 
Dvorak analysis based on .65 wrap on log10 spiral giving a T3.0.
PT=MET=3.0 Thus, T2.5/2.0/D0.5/06hrs. The system is steered generally
towards the south by a mid-level ridge to southeast. Vaianu is
expected intensify while moving southwards. Some global models agree
on a future southward track with further intensification. UKGC, EC
curves TC Vaianu slightly southwest before tracking it southwards.
 
FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 120000 UTC near 18.0S 176.3W mov SW at 08kt with 45 kt
close to the centre.  
24hrs valid at 121200 UTC near 18.7S 177.3W mov SW at 05kt with 55 kt
close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 130000 UTC near 20.1S 176.6W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt
close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.0S 176.1W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt
close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU
will be issued around 112000 UTC. 




** WTPS11 NFFN 111200     ***

PART 02


3.0 THUS, T2.5/2.0/D0.5/06HRS. THE SYSTEM IS STEERED GENERALLY

TOWARDS THE SOUTH BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST. VAIANU IS

EXPECTED INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING SOUTHWARDS. SOME GLOBAL MODELS AGREE

ON A FUTURE SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. UKGC, EC

CURVES TC VAIANU SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST BEFORE TRACKING IT SOUTHWARDS.

 

FORECAST:

12HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC NEAR 18.0S 176.3W MOV SW AT 08KT WITH 45 KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.  

24HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC NEAR 18.7S 177.3W MOV SW AT 05KT WITH 55 KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.


OUTLOOK:

36HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC NEAR 20.1S 176.6W MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 60KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

48HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC NEAR 21.0S 176.1W MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 60KT

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU

WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 112000 UTC. 


END PART 02 OF 02




** WTPS11 NFFN 111200     ***

PART 01


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

FEB 11/1414 UTC 2006 UTC.


TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU [995HPA] CENTRE WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR 17.4

SOUTH 174.9 WEST AT 111200 UTC. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON MTSTAT/EIR

WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  REPEAT POSITION 17.4S

174.9W AT 111200 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS AND

EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LATER.  CYCLONE

INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS

CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITH 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.    


TC VAIANU'S OVERALL ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND IS MAINLY

AIDED BY DIURNAL CHANGES AND DECREASED SHEAR ALOFT. LLCC STILL

DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND PLACED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF DEEP

CONVECTION. TOPS CONTINUES TO COOL AND PRIMARY BAND NOW WRAPS TIGHTER

AND CLOSER TO LLCC. THE SYSTEM STILL LIES JUST SOUTH OF UPPER 250-HPA

OUTFLOW. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C. 

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON .65 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A T3.0.

PT=MET=


END PART 01