** WTIN20 DEMS 110651 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 11-02-2006(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) SOUTH WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION(.) ---- ** WTPS11 NFFN 110600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 11/0737 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 12F [997 hPa] centre was located near 16.9S 174.6W at 110600 UTC moving south-southeast 05 knots. Position fair based on MTSTAT EIR with animation, latest and SSM/I data and peripheral surface reports. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 25 to 30 knots close to the centre increasing to 35 knots within 60 miles of centre in the next 6 to 12 hours. Overall system organisation continues to improve since past 6 hours. Primary band located just north and wraps around llcc. 12F still lies just south of upper 250-hPa outflow, in a diffluent region. CIMMS indicates 20 knots environment shear but decreased rapidly to south of 12F. Dvorak analysis based on .50 wrap on log10 spiral giving a T2.5. PT=2.0 MET=2.5 Thus, T2.5/2.0/D0.5/06hrs. The system is expected to be steered generally towards the south by a mid-level ridge to southeast. SST in the area is about 29-30C. System is expected intensify while moving southwards due to diurnal influence and decresing environment shear. Some global models agree on a future southward track with further intensification. UKGC, EC curve 12F slightly southwest before tracking it southwards. The potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours is high. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued around 111400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 110600 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 11/0737 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 12F [997 hPa] centre was located near 16.9S 174.6W at 110600 UTC moving south-southeast 05 knots. Position fair based on MTSTAT EIR with animation, latest and SSM/I data and peripheral surface reports. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 25 to 30 knots close to the centre increasing to 35 knots within 60 miles of centre in the next 6 to 12 hours. Overall system organisation continues to improve since past 6 hours. Primary band located just north and wraps around llcc. 12F still lies just south of upper 250-hPa outflow, in a diffluent region. CIMMS indicates 20 knots environment shear but decreased rapidly to south of 12F. Dvorak analysis based on .50 wrap on log10 spiral giving a T2.5. PT=2.0 MET=2.5 Thus, T2.5/2.0/D0.5/06hrs. The system is expected to be steered generally towards the south by a mid-level ridge to southeast. SST in the area is about 29-30C. System is expected intensify while moving southwards due to diurnal influence and decresing environment shear. Some global models agree on a future southward track with further intensification. UKGC, EC curve 12F slightly southwest before tracking it southwards. The potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours is high. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued around 111400 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 110600 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 11/0737 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [997 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 174.6W AT 110600 UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSTAT EIR WITH ANIMATION, LATEST AND SSM/I DATA AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. OVERALL SYSTEM ORGANISATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE SINCE PAST 6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND LOCATED JUST NORTH AND WRAPS AROUND LLCC. 12F STILL LIES JUST SOUTH OF UPPER 250-HPA OUTFLOW, IN A DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMMS INDICATES 20 KNOTS ENVIRONMENT SHEAR BUT DECREASED RAPIDLY TO SOUTH OF 12F. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON .50 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A T2.5. PT=2.0 MET=2.5 THUS, T2.5/2.0/D0.5/06HRS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING SOUTHWARDS DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCE AND DECRESING ENVIRONMENT SHEAR. SOME GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A FUTURE SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. UKGC, EC CURVE 12F SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST BEFORE TRACKING IT SOUTHWARDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS IS HIGH. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 12F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 111400 UTC. ** WTPS21 PGTW 110800 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/110751ZFEB2006// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4S 174.2W TO 20.1S 174.2W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 110600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 174.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 174.4W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 174.2W, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080527Z AMSU-B SATELLITE PASS DEPICT AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR A COMPLEX LOW LEVEL CIR- CULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EXPOSED SECONDARY CIRCULATION IS ALSO EVIDENT APPROXIMATELY 100 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE DISTUR- BANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE. WHILE CURRENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT POLEWARD OF THE LLCC, THE SHORT-TERM UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO CONTINUED CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 120800Z.//