** WTPS11 NFFN 110000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 11/0205 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 12F [999 hPa] centre was re-located near 16.6S 174.9W at 110000 UTC moving southeast 07 knots. Position poor based on MTSTAT EIR/VIS with animation, Quikscat and SSM/I data and peripheral surface reports. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 25 to 30 knots close to the centre possibly increasing to 35 knots, and extending to within 60 miles of centre in the next 12 to 24 hours. Organisation undergone marked improvement past 6 hours. Primary band still developing but beginning to wrap around llcc. 12F still lies just south of upper 250-hPa outflow, in a diffluent region and 20 to 25-knot shear. Dvorak analysis based on .40 on log10 spiral giving a T2.5. PT=MET=2.0 Thus, T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24hrs. The system is expected to be steered generally towards the south by a mid-level ridge to southeast. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Some global models agree on a future southward track with further intensification. The potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is moderate to high. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued around 110800 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 110000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 11/0205 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 12F [999 hPa] centre was re-located near 16.6S 174.9W at 110000 UTC moving southeast 07 knots. Position poor based on MTSTAT EIR/VIS with animation, Quikscat and SSM/I data and peripheral surface reports. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 25 to 30 knots close to the centre possibly increasing to 35 knots, and extending to within 60 miles of centre in the next 12 to 24 hours. Organisation undergone marked improvement past 6 hours. Primary band still developing but beginning to wrap around llcc. 12F still lies just south of upper 250-hPa outflow, in a diffluent region and 20 to 25-knot shear. Dvorak analysis based on .40 on log10 spiral giving a T2.5. PT=MET=2.0 Thus, T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24hrs. The system is expected to be steered generally towards the south by a mid-level ridge to southeast. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Some global models agree on a future southward track with further intensification. The potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is moderate to high. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued around 110800 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 110000 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 11/0205 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [999 HPA] CENTRE WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 174.9W AT 110000 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST 07 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSTAT EIR/VIS WITH ANIMATION, QUIKSCAT AND SSM/I DATA AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS, AND EXTENDING TO WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ORGANISATION UNDERGONE MARKED IMPROVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND STILL DEVELOPING BUT BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. 12F STILL LIES JUST SOUTH OF UPPER 250-HPA OUTFLOW, IN A DIFFLUENT REGION AND 20 TO 25-KNOT SHEAR. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A T2.5. PT=MET=2.0 THUS, T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C. SOME GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A FUTURE SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR 12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 12F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 110800 UTC. ** WTZS81 NSTU 110330 CCA *** SMWPPG ASZ001>002-110900- ...IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS 430 PM SST FRI FEB 10 2006 ...CORRECTION TO HEADING... ...A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND MANUA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH SATURDAY AND TO 30 TO 45 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED NEAR 15.8 SOUTH 174.1 WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TUTUILA AT 2 PM FRIDAY IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 10 PM FRIDAY. && ...UA I AI NEI FAUTUAGA MO MATAGI MALOLOSI MO LE PO O LE ASO TOONA'I MA LE ASO SA... O SIVILI MAI MATU I SISIFO 15-25 MPH MA E MALOLOSI ATU I NISI O TAIMI I LE PO NEI O LE A SI'ISI'I ATU I LE 20-30 MPH I LE ASO TO'ONA'I ONA TOE FAATETELEINA LEA I LE 30-45 MPH I LE PO O LE ASO TO'ONA'I MA LE ASO SA. O NEI MATAGI MALOLOSI E MAFUA MAI I SE TAAVILIGA O MATAGI O LOO TAOTO PE TUSA O LE 200 MAILA I SAUTE I SISIFO O TUTUILA MA O LE ALUALU LEMU ATU I SAUTE SASAE. O LE A TOE AUINA ATU SE FAAOPOOPOGA MO LE LENEI RIPOTI I LE 10 I LE PO NEI. $$ AKAPO/LAULUSA