** WTPS11 NFFN 101800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 10/2004 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 12F [1000 hPa] centre was located near 13.8S 176.3W at 101800 UTC slow moving. Position poor based on MTSTAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. LLCC difficult to locate under thick cirrus outflow. Convective tops over llcc have warmed significantly past 12 hours. Main band located about 1 degree to east of llcc. 12F lies just south of upper 250-hPa outflow, in a diffluent region but strong shear of 20 to 25 knots. Dvorak analysis based on .30 on log10 spiral giving a DT1.0. Thus, T1.0/2.0/W1.0/24hrs. PT=1.5 and MET=2.0. The system is expected to be steered gradually towards the south by a low-mid-level ridge to southeast. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Global models differ in future intensity and track. Potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low to moderate. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued around 110200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 101800 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 10/2004 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Depression 12F [1000 hPa] centre was located near 13.8S 176.3W at 101800 UTC slow moving. Position poor based on MTSTAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. LLCC difficult to locate under thick cirrus outflow. Convective tops over llcc have warmed significantly past 12 hours. Main band located about 1 degree to east of llcc. 12F lies just south of upper 250-hPa outflow, in a diffluent region but strong shear of 20 to 25 knots. Dvorak analysis based on .30 on log10 spiral giving a DT1.0. Thus, T1.0/2.0/W1.0/24hrs. PT=1.5 and MET=2.0. The system is expected to be steered gradually towards the south by a low-mid-level ridge to southeast. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Global models differ in future intensity and track. Potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low to moderate. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued around 110200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 101800 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 10/2004 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [1000 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 176.3W AT 101800 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSTAT/EIR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE UNDER THICK CIRRUS OUTFLOW. CONVECTIVE TOPS OVER LLCC HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HOURS. MAIN BAND LOCATED ABOUT 1 DEGREE TO EAST OF LLCC. 12F LIES JUST SOUTH OF UPPER 250-HPA OUTFLOW, IN A DIFFLUENT REGION BUT STRONG SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A DT1.0. THUS, T1.0/2.0/W1.0/24HRS. PT=1.5 AND MET=2.0. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED GRADUALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH BY A LOW-MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN FUTURE INTENSITY AND TRACK. POTENTIAL FOR 12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 12F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 110200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 101800 CCB *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 10/2006 UTC 2006 UTC. Correction to Advisory Number... Tropical Depression 12F [1000 hPa] centre was located near 13.8S 176.3W at 101800 UTC slow moving. Position poor based on MTSTAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. LLCC difficult to locate under thick cirrus outflow. Convective tops over llcc have warmed significantly past 12 hours. Main band located about 1 degree to east of llcc. 12F lies just south of upper 250-hPa outflow, in a diffluent region but strong shear of 20 to 25 knots. Dvorak analysis based on .30 on log10 spiral giving a DT1.0. Thus, T1.0/2.0/W1.0/24hrs. PT=1.5 and MET=2.0. The system is expected to be steered gradually towards the south by a low-mid-level ridge to southeast. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Global models differ in future intensity and track. Potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low to moderate. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued around 110200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 101800 CCB *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 10/2006 UTC 2006 UTC. Correction to Advisory Number... Tropical Depression 12F [1000 hPa] centre was located near 13.8S 176.3W at 101800 UTC slow moving. Position poor based on MTSTAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. LLCC difficult to locate under thick cirrus outflow. Convective tops over llcc have warmed significantly past 12 hours. Main band located about 1 degree to east of llcc. 12F lies just south of upper 250-hPa outflow, in a diffluent region but strong shear of 20 to 25 knots. Dvorak analysis based on .30 on log10 spiral giving a DT1.0. Thus, T1.0/2.0/W1.0/24hrs. PT=1.5 and MET=2.0. The system is expected to be steered gradually towards the south by a low-mid-level ridge to southeast. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Global models differ in future intensity and track. Potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is low to moderate. The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued around 110200 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 101800 CCB *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 10/2006 UTC 2006 UTC. CORRECTION TO ADVISORY NUMBER... TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [1000 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 176.3W AT 101800 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSTAT/EIR WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE UNDER THICK CIRRUS OUTFLOW. CONVECTIVE TOPS OVER LLCC HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 12 HOURS. MAIN BAND LOCATED ABOUT 1 DEGREE TO EAST OF LLCC. 12F LIES JUST SOUTH OF UPPER 250-HPA OUTFLOW, IN A DIFFLUENT REGION BUT STRONG SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL GIVING A DT1.0. THUS, T1.0/2.0/W1.0/24HRS. PT=1.5 AND MET=2.0. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED GRADUALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH BY A LOW-MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN FUTURE INTENSITY AND TRACK. POTENTIAL FOR 12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 12F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 110200 UTC.