** WTPS11 NFFN 101200 ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI

Feb 10/1359 UTC 2006 UTC.



Tropical depression 12F [1000 HPa] centre was located near 14.1S

176.0W at 101200 UTC slow moving but expected to turn southeast

later. Position poor and based on  MTSTAT/EIR with animation and

peripheral surface reports. SST in the area is about 29-30C.   



Deep convention has now become detached and is lies just north of

LLCC. Convective tops continues cooling. Primary band still remains

to the northeast of system centre. 12F lies just south of upper [250

HPa] outflow, in a good diffluent region. 

Dvorak analysis based on .30 on log10 spiral wrap gives

DT=PT=MET=2.0. YIELDS. 2.0/2.0/D1.0/24hrs. PAT=MET=2.0. CIMMS

indicates that the environmental shear is about 20 knots over the

system at this stage but decreasing tendency in the path of 12F. The

system is expected to be steered by the deep northwest wind flow. 

Most global models are developing the system near 20 South, perhaps

merging with 12F with 11F located to the far south.



Potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24

hours is moderate to high.



The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued

around 102000 UTC. 




** WTPS11 NFFN 101200     ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 10/1359 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical depression 12F [1000 HPa] centre was located near 14.1S
176.0W at 101200 UTC slow moving but expected to turn southeast
later. Position poor and based on  MTSTAT/EIR with animation and
peripheral surface reports. SST in the area is about 29-30C.   

Deep convention has now become detached and is lies just north of
LLCC. Convective tops continues cooling. Primary band still remains
to the northeast of system centre. 12F lies just south of upper [250
HPa] outflow, in a good diffluent region. 
Dvorak analysis based on .30 on log10 spiral wrap gives
DT=PT=MET=2.0. YIELDS. 2.0/2.0/D1.0/24hrs. PAT=MET=2.0. CIMMS
indicates that the environmental shear is about 20 knots over the
system at this stage but decreasing tendency in the path of 12F. The
system is expected to be steered by the deep northwest wind flow. 
Most global models are developing the system near 20 South, perhaps
merging with 12F with 11F located to the far south.

Potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours is moderate to high.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued
around 102000 UTC. 




** WTPS11 NFFN 101200     ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

FEB 10/1359 UTC 2006 UTC.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [1000 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S

176.0W AT 101200 UTC SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHEAST

LATER. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON  MTSTAT/EIR WITH ANIMATION AND

PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE AREA IS ABOUT 29-30C.   


DEEP CONVENTION HAS NOW BECOME DETACHED AND IS LIES JUST NORTH OF

LLCC. CONVECTIVE TOPS CONTINUES COOLING. PRIMARY BAND STILL REMAINS

TO THE NORTHEAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE. 12F LIES JUST SOUTH OF UPPER [250

HPA] OUTFLOW, IN A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION. 

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL WRAP GIVES

DT=PT=MET=2.0. YIELDS. 2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. PAT=MET=2.0. CIMMS

INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS ABOUT 20 KNOTS OVER THE

SYSTEM AT THIS STAGE BUT DECREASING TENDENCY IN THE PATH OF 12F. THE

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE DEEP NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. 

MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM NEAR 20 SOUTH, PERHAPS

MERGING WITH 12F WITH 11F LOCATED TO THE FAR SOUTH.


POTENTIAL FOR 12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24

HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 12F WILL BE ISSUED

AROUND 102000 UTC. 




** WTPS11 NFFN 100900 CCA ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 10/1001 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical depression 12F [999 HPa] centre was located near 14.0S
176.0W at 100900 UTC moving east 05 knots but expected to curve
southeast later. Position fair and based on latest SSMI, MTSTAT/EIR
with animation and peripheral surface reports. SST in the area is
about 29-30C.   

Overall organisation has improved significantly with deep convention
erupting near the centre since the past 3 hours. Convective tops also
cooling but major band still remains to the east and northeast of
LLCC. 12F lies just south of upper [250 HPa] outflow, in a good
diffluent region. Dvorak analysis based on .3 wrap thus 
2.0/2.0/D1.0/24hrs. PAT=MET=2.0. CIMMS indicates that the
environmental shear is about 20 knots over the system at this stage
but decreasing tendency in the path of 12F. 12F is expected to be
steered by the deep northwest wind flow. Most global models are
developing the system near 20 South but seems to be confused with
another depression [11F] further south of 12F.

Potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours is moderate to high.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued
around 101400 UTC. 




** WTPS11 NFFN 100900 CCA ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI

Feb 10/1001 UTC 2006 UTC.



Tropical depression 12F [999 HPa] centre was located near 14.0S

176.0W at 100900 UTC moving east 05 knots but expected to curve

southeast later. Position fair and based on latest SSMI, MTSTAT/EIR

with animation and peripheral surface reports. SST in the area is

about 29-30C.   



Overall organisation has improved significantly with deep convention

erupting near the centre since the past 3 hours. Convective tops also

cooling but major band still remains to the east and northeast of

LLCC. 12F lies just south of upper [250 HPa] outflow, in a good

diffluent region. Dvorak analysis based on .3 wrap thus 

2.0/2.0/D1.0/24hrs. PAT=MET=2.0. CIMMS indicates that the

environmental shear is about 20 knots over the system at this stage

but decreasing tendency in the path of 12F. 12F is expected to be

steered by the deep northwest wind flow. Most global models are

developing the system near 20 South but seems to be confused with

another depression [11F] further south of 12F.



Potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24

hours is moderate to high.



The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued

around 101400 UTC. 




** WTPS21 PGTW 101530 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION/101521ZFEB2006//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092021ZFEB2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 092030). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 171.5W IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 18.5S 172.1W, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO
PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DISSIPATING
CONVECTION. WHILE WEAK TO MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE STILL EXISTS
ABOVE THE SYSTEM, CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED. LOCATION OF
THE 101200Z LLCC DIFFERS BETWEEN THE FIXING AGENCIES WITH FIXES NEARLY
A DEGREE APART. THE CURRENT BEST TRACK INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS COMING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 092030)
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO LACK OF ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, AND DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE DOMINANT CIRCULATION TO THE
NORTHWEST, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.//