** WTPS11 NFFN 100900     ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 10/0959 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical depression 12F [999 HPa] centre was located near 14.0S
176.0W at 100900 UTC moving east 05 knots but expected to curve
southeast later. Position fair and based on latest SSMI, MTSTAT/EIR
with animation and peripheral surface reports. SST in the area is
about 29-30C.   

Overall organisation has improved significantly with deep convention
erupting near the centre since the past 3 hours. Convective tops also
cooling but major band still remains to the east and northeast of
LLCC. 12F lies just south of upper [250 HPa] outflow, in a good
diffluent region. Dvorak analysis based on .3 wrap thus 
2.0/2.0/D1.0/24hrs. PAT=MET=2.0. CIMMS indicates that the
environmental shear is about 20 knots over the system at this stage
but decreasing tendency in the path of 12F. 12F is expected to be
steered by the deep northwest wind flow. Most global models are
developing the system near 20 South but seems to be confused with
another depression [11F] further south of 12F.

Potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours is moderate to high.

 




** WTPS11 NFFN 100900 ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI

Feb 10/0959 UTC 2006 UTC.



Tropical depression 12F [999 HPa] centre was located near 14.0S

176.0W at 100900 UTC moving east 05 knots but expected to curve

southeast later. Position fair and based on latest SSMI, MTSTAT/EIR

with animation and peripheral surface reports. SST in the area is

about 29-30C.   



Overall organisation has improved significantly with deep convention

erupting near the centre since the past 3 hours. Convective tops also

cooling but major band still remains to the east and northeast of

LLCC. 12F lies just south of upper [250 HPa] outflow, in a good

diffluent region. Dvorak analysis based on .3 wrap thus 

2.0/2.0/D1.0/24hrs. PAT=MET=2.0. CIMMS indicates that the

environmental shear is about 20 knots over the system at this stage

but decreasing tendency in the path of 12F. 12F is expected to be

steered by the deep northwest wind flow. Most global models are

developing the system near 20 South but seems to be confused with

another depression [11F] further south of 12F.



Potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24

hours is moderate to high.



 




** WTPS11 NFFN 100900     ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

FEB 10/0959 UTC 2006 UTC.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [999 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S

176.0W AT 100900 UTC MOVING EAST 05 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO CURVE

SOUTHEAST LATER. POSITION FAIR AND BASED ON LATEST SSMI, MTSTAT/EIR

WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE AREA IS

ABOUT 29-30C.   


OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DEEP CONVENTION

ERUPTING NEAR THE CENTRE SINCE THE PAST 3 HOURS. CONVECTIVE TOPS ALSO

COOLING BUT MAJOR BAND STILL REMAINS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF

LLCC. 12F LIES JUST SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW, IN A GOOD

DIFFLUENT REGION. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON .3 WRAP THUS 

2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. PAT=MET=2.0. CIMMS INDICATES THAT THE

ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS ABOUT 20 KNOTS OVER THE SYSTEM AT THIS STAGE

BUT DECREASING TENDENCY IN THE PATH OF 12F. 12F IS EXPECTED TO BE

STEERED BY THE DEEP NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE

DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM NEAR 20 SOUTH BUT SEEMS TO BE CONFUSED WITH

ANOTHER DEPRESSION [11F] FURTHER SOUTH OF 12F.


POTENTIAL FOR 12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24

HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.


 




** WTPS11 NFFN 100900 CCA ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 10/1001 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical depression 12F [999 HPa] centre was located near 14.0S
176.0W at 100900 UTC moving east 05 knots but expected to curve
southeast later. Position fair and based on latest SSMI, MTSTAT/EIR
with animation and peripheral surface reports. SST in the area is
about 29-30C.   

Overall organisation has improved significantly with deep convention
erupting near the centre since the past 3 hours. Convective tops also
cooling but major band still remains to the east and northeast of
LLCC. 12F lies just south of upper [250 HPa] outflow, in a good
diffluent region. Dvorak analysis based on .3 wrap thus 
2.0/2.0/D1.0/24hrs. PAT=MET=2.0. CIMMS indicates that the
environmental shear is about 20 knots over the system at this stage
but decreasing tendency in the path of 12F. 12F is expected to be
steered by the deep northwest wind flow. Most global models are
developing the system near 20 South but seems to be confused with
another depression [11F] further south of 12F.

Potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours is moderate to high.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued
around 101400 UTC. 




** WTPS11 NFFN 100900 CCA ***
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI

Feb 10/1001 UTC 2006 UTC.



Tropical depression 12F [999 HPa] centre was located near 14.0S

176.0W at 100900 UTC moving east 05 knots but expected to curve

southeast later. Position fair and based on latest SSMI, MTSTAT/EIR

with animation and peripheral surface reports. SST in the area is

about 29-30C.   



Overall organisation has improved significantly with deep convention

erupting near the centre since the past 3 hours. Convective tops also

cooling but major band still remains to the east and northeast of

LLCC. 12F lies just south of upper [250 HPa] outflow, in a good

diffluent region. Dvorak analysis based on .3 wrap thus 

2.0/2.0/D1.0/24hrs. PAT=MET=2.0. CIMMS indicates that the

environmental shear is about 20 knots over the system at this stage

but decreasing tendency in the path of 12F. 12F is expected to be

steered by the deep northwest wind flow. Most global models are

developing the system near 20 South but seems to be confused with

another depression [11F] further south of 12F.



Potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24

hours is moderate to high.



The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued

around 101400 UTC. 




** WTPS11 NFFN 100900 CCA ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

FEB 10/1001 UTC 2006 UTC.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [999 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S

176.0W AT 100900 UTC MOVING EAST 05 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO CURVE

SOUTHEAST LATER. POSITION FAIR AND BASED ON LATEST SSMI, MTSTAT/EIR

WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE AREA IS

ABOUT 29-30C.   


OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DEEP CONVENTION

ERUPTING NEAR THE CENTRE SINCE THE PAST 3 HOURS. CONVECTIVE TOPS ALSO

COOLING BUT MAJOR BAND STILL REMAINS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF

LLCC. 12F LIES JUST SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW, IN A GOOD

DIFFLUENT REGION. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON .3 WRAP THUS 

2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. PAT=MET=2.0. CIMMS INDICATES THAT THE

ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS ABOUT 20 KNOTS OVER THE SYSTEM AT THIS STAGE

BUT DECREASING TENDENCY IN THE PATH OF 12F. 12F IS EXPECTED TO BE

STEERED BY THE DEEP NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE

DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM NEAR 20 SOUTH BUT SEEMS TO BE CONFUSED WITH

ANOTHER DEPRESSION [11F] FURTHER SOUTH OF 12F.


POTENTIAL FOR 12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24

HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 12F WILL BE ISSUED

AROUND 101400 UTC. 




** WTPS11 NFFN 100900 CCA ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

FEB 10/1001 UTC 2006 UTC.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12F [999 HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S

176.0W AT 100900 UTC MOVING EAST 05 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO CURVE

SOUTHEAST LATER. POSITION FAIR AND BASED ON LATEST SSMI, MTSTAT/EIR

WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST IN THE AREA IS

ABOUT 29-30C.   



OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DEEP CONVENTION

ERUPTING NEAR THE CENTRE SINCE THE PAST 3 HOURS. CONVECTIVE TOPS ALSO

COOLING BUT MAJOR BAND STILL REMAINS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF

LLCC. 12F LIES JUST SOUTH OF UPPER [250 HPA] OUTFLOW, IN A GOOD

DIFFLUENT REGION. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON .3 WRAP THUS 

2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. PAT=MET=2.0. CIMMS INDICATES THAT THE

ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS ABOUT 20 KNOTS OVER THE SYSTEM AT THIS STAGE

BUT DECREASING TENDENCY IN THE PATH OF 12F. 12F IS EXPECTED TO BE

STEERED BY THE DEEP NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE

DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM NEAR 20 SOUTH BUT SEEMS TO BE CONFUSED WITH

ANOTHER DEPRESSION [11F] FURTHER SOUTH OF 12F.



POTENTIAL FOR 12F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24

HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.



THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 12F WILL BE ISSUED

AROUND 101400 UTC.