** WTIN20 DEMS 060605 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 06-02-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA. SOUTH WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION. ** WTIO21 FMEE 060615 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 06/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 045/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 06/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 988 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 35.2S / 55.2E (TRENTE-CINQ DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE-CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 30 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS PRINCIPALEMENT LOCALISE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD JUSQU'A 400 MN DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/55 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 110 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 130 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 140 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 190 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 06/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 38.6S / 61.8E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 07/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 42.1S / 70.6E, VENT MAX = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: DU FAIT DU CARACTERE EXTRATROPICAL DU SYSTEME , LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS SE TROUVENT LOIN DU CENTRE, PARTICULIEREMENT DANS LE NORD-EST DU SYSTEME EN RAISON DU DEPLACEMENT PROPRE DU MINIMUM. . ** WTIO24 FMEE 060615 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 06/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 045/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 06/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 988 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 35.2S / 55.2E (THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 30 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER MAINLY EXISTS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN 400 NM OF THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 110 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 140 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 190 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/06 AT 18 UTC: 38.6S / 61.8E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/07 AT 06 UTC: 42.1S / 70.6E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: DUE TO THE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SYSTEM , STRONGEST WINDS EXISTS FAR FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM, DUE TO ITS OWN SPEED. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 060627 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 52/8/20052006 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/06 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 35.2S / 55.2E (THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/06 18 UTC: 38.6S/61.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2006/02/07 06 UTC: 42.1S/70.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/02/07 18 UTC: 45.0S/80.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/08 06 UTC: 46.5S/90.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CIRCULATION IS MORE AND MORE ASYMETRIC, ELONGATED FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH, WITH STRONG WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART DUE TO THE OWN SPEED OF THE LOW. IT SHOULD TRACK BETWEEN KERGUELEN AND AMSTERDAM ISLANDS ON THE 07.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 060627 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 52/8/20052006 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/06 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 35.2S / 55.2E (THIRTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 300 50 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/06 18 UTC: 38.6S/61.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2006/02/07 06 UTC: 42.1S/70.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/02/07 18 UTC: 45.0S/80.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/08 06 UTC: 46.5S/90.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CIRCULATION IS MORE AND MORE ASYMETRIC, ELONGATED FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH, WITH STRONG WINDS EXTENDING FAR FROM THE CENTER MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART DUE TO THE OWN SPEED OF THE LOW. IT SHOULD TRACK BETWEEN KERGUELEN AND AMSTERDAM ISLANDS ON THE 07. . ** WTSR20 WSSS 060600 *** NO STORM WARNING=