** WTIO30 FMEE 051205 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 49/8/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/05 AT 1200 UTC : 30.4S / 47.9E (THIRTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 450 SO: 200 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 32.8S/51.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2006/02/06 12 UTC: 35.0S/55.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/02/07 00 UTC: 37.0S/60.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/07 12 UTC: 39.0S/66.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/08 00 UTC: 40.2S/72.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/08 12 UTC: 40.8S/78.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. LOCATED BETWEEN A HIGH CENTRED OVER MASCARENES ISLANDS AND A POLAR TROUGH , THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARDS AND EVACUATES TOWARDS EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES.= ** WTIO24 FMEE 051204 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 042/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 975 HPA POSITION: 30.4S / 47.9E (THIRTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 20 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/06 AT 00 UTC: 32.8S / 51.2E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/06 AT 12 UTC: 35.0S / 55.5E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. BOLOETSE QUICKLY TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARDS, TOWARDS EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES. STRONG WINDS EXIST NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO ITS OWN SPEED. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 051205 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 49/8/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/05 AT 1200 UTC : 30.4S / 47.9E (THIRTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 450 SO: 200 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 32.8S/51.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2006/02/06 12 UTC: 35.0S/55.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/02/07 00 UTC: 37.0S/60.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/07 12 UTC: 39.0S/66.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/08 00 UTC: 40.2S/72.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/08 12 UTC: 40.8S/78.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. LOCATED BETWEEN A HIGH CENTRED OVER MASCARENES ISLANDS AND A POLAR TROUGH , THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARDS AND EVACUATES TOWARDS EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 051204 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 05/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 042/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 05/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (BOLOETSE) 975 HPA POSITION: 30.4S / 47.9E (TRENTE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE-SEPT DEGRES NEUF EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 20 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 350 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. TEMPETE 50/55 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 220 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 06/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 32.8S / 51.2E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 06/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 35.0S / 55.5E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, EXTRATROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME FAIBLIT SOUS L'EFFET D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOINS FAVORABLE. IL A ADOPTE UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST RAPIDE QUI LE MENE VERS LES LATITUDES EXTRATROPICALES. DES VENTS FORTS EXISTENT DANS LE NORD ET L'EST DU SYSTEME, DU FAIT DE SA VITESSE PROPRE. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 051500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 30.4S 47.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 30.4S 47.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 33.8S 51.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 37.3S 57.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 31.2S 48.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MAXIMUM CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE BEGINNING STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH A DEVELOPING DRY NOTCH IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. TC 09S WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TAU 24, AT WHICH POINT THE STORM WILL FULLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.// ** WTMG20 FMMD 050700 *** B.M.S. NR023/08 DE FMMDYMYP A 06 TU LE 05/02/06 A 06 TU AVIS D'OURAGAN :EN COURS CYCLONE TROPICAL : ?BOLOETSE? PRESSION:970 HPA CENTRE A 06 TU : D'APRES METEOSAT DANS UN RAYON DE 30MN AUTOUR DU POINT:VINGT HUIT DEGRES DECIMAL HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES DECIMAL CINQ EST. RPT:28.8S/46.5E DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST VITESSE:16 KT ZONE INTERESSEE : TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE,S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 300MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI CIRCLE SUD-OUEST.OURAGAN 65KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 20MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 80MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 140MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 220 DANS LE DEMI-CIRCLE SUD EST.FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. COMMENTAIRE : AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME ** WTMG20 FMMD 050700 *** HURRICANE WARNING HURRICANE : ?BOLOETSE? PRESSURE: 970HPA CENTREAD AT 06TU : ACCORDING TO METEOSAT WITHIN 30NM AROUND:TWENTY EIGHT DEGREES DECIMAL EIGHT SOUTH AND FOURTY SIX DEGREES DECIMAL FIVE EAST. RPT:28.8S/46.5E MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EASTWARD SPEED:16KT INTERESTED AREA : SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 120NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 300NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20NM RADIUS O THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60NM AROUND THE CENTER.GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80NM AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 140NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS COMMENTARY : WEAKENING SYSTEM ** WTMG20 FMMD 050700 *** B.M.S. NR023/08 DE FMMDYMYP A 06 TU LE 05/02/06 A 06 TU AVIS D'OURAGAN :EN COURS CYCLONE TROPICAL : ?BOLOETSE? PRESSION:970 HPA CENTRE A 06 TU : D'APRES METEOSAT DANS UN RAYON DE 30MN AUTOUR DU POINT:VINGT HUIT DEGRES DECIMAL HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE SIX DEGRES DECIMAL CINQ EST. RPT:28.8S/46.5E DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST VITESSE:16 KT ZONE INTERESSEE : TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE,S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 300MN DU CENTRE DANS LE DEMI CIRCLE SUD-OUEST.OURAGAN 65KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 20MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 80MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 140MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST GRAND FRAIS 30KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 220 DANS LE DEMI-CIRCLE SUD EST.FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. COMMENTAIRE : AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU SYSTEME= ** WTMG20 FMMD 050700 *** HURRICANE WARNING HURRICANE : ?BOLOETSE? PRESSURE: 970HPA CENTREAD AT 06TU : ACCORDING TO METEOSAT WITHIN 30NM AROUND:TWENTY EIGHT DEGREES DECIMAL EIGHT SOUTH AND FOURTY SIX DEGREES DECIMAL FIVE EAST. RPT:28.8S/46.5E MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EASTWARD SPEED:16KT INTERESTED AREA : SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 120NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 300NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTH WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20NM RADIUS O THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60NM AROUND THE CENTER.GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45KT VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80NM AROUND THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 140NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS COMMENTARY : WEAKENING SYSTEM=