** WTIO24 FMEE 050620 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 041/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 970 HPA POSITION: 28.8S / 46.5E (TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 18 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/05 AT 18 UTC: 31.5S / 49.0E, MAX WIND = 50 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/02/06 AT 06 UTC: 33.8S / 52.4E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO A LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. BOLOETSE QUICKLY TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARDS, TOWARDS EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES. STRONG WINDS EXIST NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO ITS OWN SPEED. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 050620 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 05/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 041/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 05/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (BOLOETSE) 970 HPA POSITION: 28.8S / 46.5E (VINGT-HUIT DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUARANTE-SIX DEGRES CINQ EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 18 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 350 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-OUEST. OURAGAN 65 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME PRES DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 70 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 150 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 220 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 05/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 31.5S / 49.0E, VENT MAX = 50 KT. A 24H POUR LE 06/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 33.8S / 52.4E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME FAIBLIT SOUS L'EFFET D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOINS FAVORABLE. IL A ADOPTE UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-EST RAPIDE QUI LE MENE VERS LES LATITUDES EXTRATROPICALES. DES VENTS FORTS EXISTENT DANS LE NORD ET L'EST DU SYSTEME, DU FAIT DE SA VITESSE PROPRE. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 050631 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 48/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/05 AT 0600 UTC : 28.8S / 46.5E (TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 450 SO: 200 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 31.5S/49.0E, MAX WIND=050KT. 24H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 33.8S/52.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/02/06 18 UTC: 35.5S/56.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/07 06 UTC: 36.7S/60.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/07 18 UTC: 37.5S/64.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/08 06 UTC: 38.0S/68.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5+ CI=4.5- THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO UNDERGO THE BEGINNING OF A CAPTURE. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ERODES BUT REMAINS IN PHASIS WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION (SSMI 0320Z). LOCATED BETWEEN A HIGH CENTRED OVER MASCARENES AND A POLAR TROUGH, THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARDS AND EVACUATES TOWARDS EXTRATROPICALE LATITUDES.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 050631 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 48/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/05 AT 0600 UTC : 28.8S / 46.5E (TWENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 450 SO: 200 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 31.5S/49.0E, MAX WIND=050KT. 24H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 33.8S/52.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/02/06 18 UTC: 35.5S/56.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/07 06 UTC: 36.7S/60.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/07 18 UTC: 37.5S/64.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/08 06 UTC: 38.0S/68.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5+ CI=4.5- THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO UNDERGO THE BEGINNING OF A CAPTURE. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ERODES BUT REMAINS IN PHASIS WITH THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION (SSMI 0320Z). LOCATED BETWEEN A HIGH CENTRED OVER MASCARENES AND A POLAR TROUGH, THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARDS AND EVACUATES TOWARDS EXTRATROPICALE LATITUDES. . ** WTIN20 DEMS 050702 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-02-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA. SOUTH WESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION. ** WTXS31 PGTW 050900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 28.8S 46.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.8S 46.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 32.3S 49.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 36.2S 54.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 47.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH- EAST. TC 09S WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH AND TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//