** WTIO30 FMEE 050013 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 47/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/05 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.7S / 45.2E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 250 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 29.0S/46.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 32.0S/49.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/02/06 12 UTC: 34.3S/53.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/07 00 UTC: 35.8S/58.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/07 12 UTC: 37.0S/64.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/08 00 UTC: 38.0S/69.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0 CI=4.5+ SINCE THIS MORNING, SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW LOCATED UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS GOING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM BOLOETSE ON A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY. THEY AGREE TO INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA . . ** WTIO24 FMEE 050013 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 040/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 05/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 960 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.7S / 45.2E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 350 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CERCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CERCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/05 AT 12 UTC: 29.0S / 46.9E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/02/06 AT 00 UTC: 32.0S / 49.2E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO A LESS ANS LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS GOING ON SHEARING WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS GOING TO GO AWAY THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY AND TO EVACUATE IN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL AREA. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 050013 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 05/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 040/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: DIMANCHE 05/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (BOLOETSE) 960 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.7S / 45.2E (VINGT-SIX DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE-CINQ DEGRES DEUX EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 11 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 350 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/75 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 180 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQUE 270 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 05/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 29.0S / 46.9E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 06/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 32.0S / 49.2E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME FAIBLIT SOUS L'EFFET D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOINS EN MOINS FAVORABLE. LE SYSTEME EST EN COURS DE CISAILLEMENT AVEC LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES QUI S E TROUVE MAINTENANT SOUS LA BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION. LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME S'ELOIGNE MAINTENANT DU SUD DE MADAGASCAR. IL EST PREVU ENSUITE CONTINUER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT PROGRESSIVEMENT ET S'EVACUER DANS LE DOMAINE EXTRA-TROPICAL. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 050013 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 47/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/05 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.7S / 45.2E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 250 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 29.0S/46.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 32.0S/49.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/02/06 12 UTC: 34.3S/53.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/07 00 UTC: 35.8S/58.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/07 12 UTC: 37.0S/64.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/08 00 UTC: 38.0S/69.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0 CI=4.5+ SINCE THIS MORNING, SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW LOCATED UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS GOING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM BOLOETSE ON A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY. THEY AGREE TO INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA .= ** WTXS31 PGTW 050300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 27.2S 45.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 45.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 30.0S 47.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 33.1S 51.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 36.2S 56.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 45.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS CENTERED JUST NORTH AND BETWEEN TWO MIDLATITUDE TROUGHS. THE SECOND OF THESE TROUGHS WILL FACILITATE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FULLY BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//