** WTIO21 FMEE 041808 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 04/02/2006 A 1800 UTC. NUMERO: 039/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 04/02/2006 A 1800 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (BOLOETSE) 955 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.9S / 44.7E (VINGT-CINQ DEGRES NEUF SUD ET QUARANTE-QUATRE DEGRES SEPT EST) A 1800 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 11 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 300 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/80 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 90 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 180 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQUE 270 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 05/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 28.4S / 46.4E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. A 24H POUR LE 05/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 31.4S / 48.7E, VENT MAX = 50 KT, DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME FAIBLIT SOUS L'EFFET D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOINS EN MOINS FAVORABLE. LE SYSTEME EST EN COURS DE CISAILLEMENT AVEC LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES APPARAIT MAINTENANT EN BORDURE NORD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION .. LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME S'ELOIGNE MAINTENANT DU SUD DE MADAGASCAR. IL EST PREVU ENSUITE CONTINUER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT PROGRESSIVEMENT ET S'EVACUER DANS LE DOMAINE EXTRA-TROPICAL. . ** WTIO24 FMEE 041808 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 04/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 039/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/02/2006 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 955 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.9S / 44.7E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CERCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 270 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CERCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/05 AT 06 UTC: 28.4S / 46.4E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. 24H, VALID 2006/02/05 AT 18 UTC: 31.4S / 48.7E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO A LESS ANS LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS GOING ON SHEARING WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS GOING TO GO AWAY THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY AND TO EVACUATE IN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL AREA. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 041809 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 46/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/04 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.9S / 44.7E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 250 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 28.4S/46.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 31.4S/48.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 34.0S/52.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/06 18 UTC: 36.8S/59.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/07 06 UTC: 38.6S/67.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/07 18 UTC: 41.7S/74.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SINCE THIS MORNING, SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW VISIBLE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS GOING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM BOLOETSE ON A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY. THEY AGREE TO INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA .= ** WTIO30 FMEE 041809 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 46/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/04 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.9S / 44.7E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 250 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 28.4S/46.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 31.4S/48.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 34.0S/52.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/06 18 UTC: 36.8S/59.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/07 06 UTC: 38.6S/67.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/07 18 UTC: 41.7S/74.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SINCE THIS MORNING, SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW VISIBLE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS GOING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM BOLOETSE ON A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY. THEY AGREE TO INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA . . ** WTIO30 FMEE 041809 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 46/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/04 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.9S / 44.7E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 250 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 28.4S/46.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 31.4S/48.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 34.0S/52.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/06 18 UTC: 36.8S/59.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/07 06 UTC: 38.6S/67.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/07 18 UTC: 41.7S/74.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SINCE THIS MORNING, SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW VISIBLE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS GOING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM BOLOETSE ON A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY. THEY AGREE TO INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA .= ** WTXS31 PGTW 042100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 26.1S 44.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 26.1S 44.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.9S 46.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 31.9S 49.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 35.1S 53.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 37.7S 59.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 26.8S 45.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S HAS WEAKENED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MADA- GASCAR AND A HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL ADD TO THE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL RESULT IN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z, AND 052100Z.//