** WTIO24 FMEE 041232 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 04/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 038/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 954 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1S / 43.9E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 13 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 170 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 220 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 55 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 65 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 65 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 270 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE MALAGASY COASTLINE EFFECT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/05 AT 00 UTC: 26.9S / 45.3E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/05 AT 12 UTC: 29.5S / 46.8E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BOLOETSE HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY LAST NIGHT. SINCE THIS MORNING, SYSTEM IS WEAKENING DUE TO A LESS ANS LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CROSS AT THIS TIME AT ABOUT 20 KM WITHIN THE MALAGASY COASTLINE NEAR ANDROKA AREA WHICH COULD BE CONCERN WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY AND TO EVACUATE IN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL AREA. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 041232 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 04/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 038/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 04/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (BOLOETSE) 954 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.1S / 43.9E (VINGT-CINQ DEGRES UN SUD ET QUARANTE-TROIS DEGRES NEUF EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 13 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 170 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET JUSQU'A 220 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/80 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 55 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST ET JUSQU'A 65 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 65 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 100 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST, JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-OUEST ET JUSQU'A 140 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 150 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQUE 270 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST PAR RENFORCEMENT LE LONG DES COTES MALGACHES. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 05/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 26.9S / 45.3E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 05/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 29.5S / 46.8E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, DEVENANT EXTRATROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME BOLOETSE A PROBABLEMENT ATTEIND SON MAXIMUM D'INTENSITE LA NUIT DERNIERE. DEPUIS CE MATIN LE SYSTEME FAIBLIT SOUS L'EFFET D'UN ENVIRONNEMENT DE MOINS EN MOINS FAVORABLE LE CENTRE DU SYSTEME PASSE EN CE MOMENT A ENVIRON 20 KM DE LA COTE DANS LA REGION D'ANDROKA QUI DEVRAIT SUBIR LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS. IL EST PREVU ENSUITE CONTINUER SUR UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT PROGRESSIVEMENT ET S'EVACUER DANS LE DOMAINE EXTRA-TROPICAL. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 041234 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 45/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/04 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1S / 43.9E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 954 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 500 SE: 300 SO: 270 NO: 270 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 26.9S/45.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 29.5S/46.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 32.7S/49.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/06 12 UTC: 36.0S/56.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/07 00 UTC: 38.8S/64.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/07 12 UTC: 41.4S/70.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5 ; CI=5.0+ BOLOETSE HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY LAST NIGHT AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (CF INFRARED INDOEX IMAGERY BETWEEN 1900UTC AND 2000UTC). SINCE THIS MORNING, SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS OUT OF PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION (CF SSMIS F16 AT 0438UTC IN 85GHZ AND 37GHZ CHANNELS). SINCE 0700UTC, EYE HAS COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED AND DVORAK ANALYSIS IN INFRARED AND VISIBLE CHANNELS GIVE T=4.5. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CROSS AT THIS TIME AT ABOUT 20 KM WITHIN THE MALAGASY COASTLINE NEAR ANDROKA AREA WHICH COULD BE CONCERN WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM BOLOETSE ON A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY. THEY AGREE TO INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA .= ** WTIO30 FMEE 041234 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 45/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/04 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1S / 43.9E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 954 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 500 SE: 300 SO: 270 NO: 270 50 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 120 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 26.9S/45.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 29.5S/46.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 32.7S/49.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/06 12 UTC: 36.0S/56.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/07 00 UTC: 38.8S/64.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/07 12 UTC: 41.4S/70.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5 ; CI=5.0+ BOLOETSE HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY LAST NIGHT AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (CF INFRARED INDOEX IMAGERY BETWEEN 1900UTC AND 2000UTC). SINCE THIS MORNING, SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS OUT OF PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION (CF SSMIS F16 AT 0438UTC IN 85GHZ AND 37GHZ CHANNELS). SINCE 0700UTC, EYE HAS COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED AND DVORAK ANALYSIS IN INFRARED AND VISIBLE CHANNELS GIVE T=4.5. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CROSS AT THIS TIME AT ABOUT 20 KM WITHIN THE MALAGASY COASTLINE NEAR ANDROKA AREA WHICH COULD BE CONCERN WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AGREE TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM BOLOETSE ON A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS ACCELERATING PROGRESSIVELY. THEY AGREE TO INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA . . ** WTXS31 PGTW 041500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 24.9S 43.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.9S 43.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 27.2S 45.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 30.1S 47.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 21 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 33.2S 50.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 36.8S 54.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 27 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 42.4S 66.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 44.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FORCE UNTIL AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVERTAKES TC 09S AND CAUSES A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//