** WTIO21 FMEE 040616 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 04/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 037/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 04/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (BOLOETSE) 946 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.7S / 42.9E (VINGT-TROIS DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 8 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE SECTEUR SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/90 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 130 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 04/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 25.6S / 44.3E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 05/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 27.9S / 45.8E, VENT MAX = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: BOLOETSE POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EN DIRECTION DE L'EXTREMITE SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR ET SE TROUVE ACTUELLEMENT A ENVIRON 100 KM A L'OUEST DE TULEAR OU DES VENTS SUR 10MN DE 40KT ET DES RAFALES DE 70KT SONT MESURES A 0500UTC. DE FORTES PLUIES ET DE VIOLENTES RAFALES DE VENT SONT PREVUES SEVIR SUR LES ZONES DE MOROMBE A TULEAR ET A FORT-DAUPHIN PENDANT LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, AVEC UNE MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME SUR LA COTE OCCIDENTALE. ENSUITE, TOUJOURS EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU FAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEM ENT LORSQU'IL CIRCULERA AU SUD DE 25S. . ** WTIO24 FMEE 040616 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 04/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 037/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 946 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7S / 42.9E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 130 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/04 AT 18 UTC: 25.6S / 44.3E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/05 AT 06 UTC: 27.9S / 45.8E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, FORTE TEMP. TROP.. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BOLOETSE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR AND IS LOCATED AT THIS TIME WITHIN 100 KM WEST OF TULEAR WHERE 10MN WINDS UP TO 40KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 70KT ARE OBSERVED AT 0500UTC . HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY STRONG GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM MOROMBE TO TULEAR AND TO FORT-DAUPHIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTLINE. THEN, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHEN TRACKING SOUTH OF 25S. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 040622 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 44/8/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/04 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7S / 42.9E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 946 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 25.6S/44.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 27.9S/45.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 30.9S/48.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 33.9S/53.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/06 18 UTC: 36.6S/59.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/07 06 UTC: 38.9S/67.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 ; CI=5.5- BOLOETSE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS, TOWARDS THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND IS LOCATED AT THIS TIME WITHIN 100 KM SOUTHWEST OF TULEAR WHERE 10MN WINDS UP TO 40KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 70KT WERE OBSERVED AT 0500UTC . CONVECTIVE LINES HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR FOR FEW HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY STRONG GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS (FROM MOROMBE TO TULEAR AND TO FORT-DAUPHIN), WITH VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTLINE. BOLOETSE IS STILL A SMALL SIZE CYCLONE, ITS INTENSITY CAN FLUCTUATE RAPIDELY. ACCORDING TO RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEGINS TO BE LIGHTLY OUT OF PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL. SOUTH OF 25S, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST SHOULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO THE WEAKEN GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 040622 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 44/8/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/04 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7S / 42.9E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 946 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 25.6S/44.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 27.9S/45.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 30.9S/48.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 33.9S/53.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/06 18 UTC: 36.6S/59.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/07 06 UTC: 38.9S/67.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 ; CI=5.5- BOLOETSE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS, TOWARDS THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND IS LOCATED AT THIS TIME WITHIN 100 KM SOUTHWEST OF TULEAR WHERE 10MN WINDS UP TO 40KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 70KT WERE OBSERVED AT 0500UTC . CONVECTIVE LINES HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR FOR FEW HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY STRONG GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS (FROM MOROMBE TO TULEAR AND TO FORT-DAUPHIN), WITH VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTLINE. BOLOETSE IS STILL A SMALL SIZE CYCLONE, ITS INTENSITY CAN FLUCTUATE RAPIDELY. ACCORDING TO RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BEGINS TO BE LIGHTLY OUT OF PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL. SOUTH OF 25S, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST SHOULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO THE WEAKEN GRADUALLY. . ** WTIN20 DEMS 040702 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 04-02-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA SOUTHWESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION. ** WTIN20 DEMS 040702 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 04-02-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA SOUTHWESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION. ** WTXS31 PGTW 040900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 23.9S 42.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S 42.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 26.0S 44.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.2S 45.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 31.1S 48.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 34.0S 51.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 41.7S 63.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 43.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 040438Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BANDING EYE, WITH MAXIMUM CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN QUADRANTS. THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FORCE UNTIL AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVERTAKES TC 09S AND CAUSES A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//