** WTIO24 FMEE 040017 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 04/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 036/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 04/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 946 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2S / 42.4E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 10 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/90 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/04 AT 12 UTC: 24.7S / 43.7E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/05 AT 00 UTC: 26.4S / 45.0E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BOLOETSE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS SOUTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR .. HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY STRONG GUSTS ARE EXPECTED FROM MOROMBE TO TULEAR AND TO FORT-DAUPHIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTLINE. THEN, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WH EN TRACKING SOUTH OF 25S. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 040017 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 43/8/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/04 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2S / 42.4E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 946 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 24.7S/43.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 26.4S/45.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 29.3S/46.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 32.4S/49.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/06 12 UTC: 35.0S/55.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/07 00 UTC: 37.0S/61.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0+ ; CI=5.5- BOLOETSE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS, TOWARDS THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. CONVECTIVE LINES HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR FOR FEW HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY STRONG GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS (FROM MOROMBE TO TULEAR AND TO FORT-DAUPHIN), WITH VER Y HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTLINE. BOLOETSE IS STILL A SMALL SIZE CYCLONE, ITS INTENSITY CAN FLUCTUATE RAPIDELY. ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE, BUT SOUTH OF 25S, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST SHOULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO THE WEAKEN GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 040017 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 43/8/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/04 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.2S / 42.4E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 946 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 24.7S/43.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 26.4S/45.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 29.3S/46.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 32.4S/49.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/02/06 12 UTC: 35.0S/55.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/02/07 00 UTC: 37.0S/61.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0+ ; CI=5.5- BOLOETSE KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS, TOWARDS THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. CONVECTIVE LINES HAVE BEEN AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR FOR FEW HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY STRONG GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS (FROM MOROMBE TO TULEAR AND TO FORT-DAUPHIN), WITH VER Y HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTLINE. BOLOETSE IS STILL A SMALL SIZE CYCLONE, ITS INTENSITY CAN FLUCTUATE RAPIDELY. ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE, BUT SOUTH OF 25S, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST SHOULD LEAD THE SYSTEM TO THE WEAKEN GRADUALLY. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 040017 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 04/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 036/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: SAMEDI 04/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 8 (BOLOETSE) 946 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.2S / 42.4E (VINGT-TROIS DEGRES DEUX SUD ET QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES QUATRE EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 10 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 130 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 250 MN DANS LE SECTEUR NORD-EST. OURAGAN 65/90 KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 04/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 24.7S / 43.7E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 05/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 26.4S / 45.0E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: BOLOETSE POURSUIT UNE TRAJECTOIRE VERS LE SUD-EST EN DIRECTION DE L'EXTREMITE SUD-OUEST DE MADAGASCAR. DE FORTES PLUIES ET DE VIOLENTES RAFALES DE VENT SONT PREVUES SEVIR SUR LES ZONES DE MOROMBE A TULEAR ET A FORT-DAUPHIN PENDANT LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, AVEC UNE MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME SUR LA COTE OCCIDENTALE. ENSUITE, TOUJOURS EN DIRECTION DU SUD-OUEST, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU FAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT LORSQU'IL CIRCULERA AU SUD DE 25S. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 040300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 23.2S 42.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 42.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.9S 43.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 26.9S 45.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 29.5S 47.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 32.5S 49.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 38.4S 58.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 42.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SAT- ELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 09S HAS ONCE AGAIN LOST A VISIBLE EYE ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS DISCERNIBLE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM REACHED MAXIMUM INTENSITY NEARLY SIX HOURS AGO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE INCREASED LAND INTERACTION AND HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHEASTLY TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK WILL FACILITATE THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (XT) BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETION BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIG- NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z, AND 050300Z.//