** WTIO30 FMEE 031204 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 41/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/03 AT 1200 UTC : 21.4S / 40.7E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 84 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/04 00 UTC: 22.6S/41.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 24.0S/42.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 25.7S/44.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 27.9S/46.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 30.1S/49.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 72H: 2006/02/06 12 UTC: 32.3S/52.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0+. DURING LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH THE REBUILT OF THE EYE . BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SST) SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR UP TO 18 TO 20 HOURS RANGE.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 031204 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 03/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 034/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 03/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (BOLOETSE) 950 HPA POSITION: 21.4S / 40.7E (VINGT ET UN DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET QUARANTE DEGRES SEPT EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. OURAGAN 65/85KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 04/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 22.6S / 41.7E, VENT MAX = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 04/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 24.0S / 42.9E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'INTENSIFICATION A REPRIS AVEC A NOUVEAU LA FORMATION D'UN OEIL EN FIN DE NUIT, OEIL TOUJOURS VISIBLE SUR LES IMAGES SATELLITES VISIBLES. L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE BOLETSE RESTE FAVORABLE ET L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME EST PREVUE SE POURSUIVRE DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES, PUIS LE SYSTEME EST PREVU COMMENCER A FAIBLIR AU DELA DE 18 A 24 HEURES. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT. ** WTIO30 FMEE 031204 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 41/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/03 AT 1200 UTC : 21.4S / 40.7E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 84 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/04 00 UTC: 22.6S/41.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 24.0S/42.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 25.7S/44.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 27.9S/46.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 30.1S/49.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 72H: 2006/02/06 12 UTC: 32.3S/52.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0+. DURING LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH THE REBUILT OF THE EYE .. BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SST) SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR UP TO 18 TO 20 HOURS RANGE. ** WTIO24 FMEE 031204 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 034/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 950 HPA POSITION: 21.4S / 40.7E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/04 AT 00 UTC: 22.6S / 41.7E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/04 AT 12 UTC: 24.0S / 42.9E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH THE REBUILT OF THE EYE AT THE END OF THE LAST NIGTH, THE EYE IS STILL VISIBLE ON VISIBLE STAELLITE IMAGERY. BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT HOURS, THEN THE SYSTEM IS GOING TO WEAKEN UP TO 18 TO 24 HOURS RANGE. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS, ACCELERATING. ** WTIO30 FMEE 031204 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 41/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/03 AT 1200 UTC : 21.4S / 40.7E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 84 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/04 00 UTC: 22.6S/41.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 24.0S/42.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 25.7S/44.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 27.9S/46.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 30.1S/49.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM .. 72H: 2006/02/06 12 UTC: 32.3S/52.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.0+. DURING LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH THE REBUILT OF THE EYE .. BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SST) SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR UP TO 18 TO 20 HOURS RANGE. ** WTXS31 PGTW 031500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 031200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 40.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 40.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 22.8S 42.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.5S 43.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 26.5S 44.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 29.4S 47.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 38.2S 55.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 031500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 41.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SMALLER AND CLOUD-FILLED EYE, NOW WITH A RADIUS OF 06 NM. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK AS IT IS BEING STEERED BY A BUILDING RIDGE EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MADA- GASCAR. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER STEERING WINDS AS WELL AS THE VERTI- CAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT, TC 09S WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FORWARD SPEED AND START A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (XT) AND SHOULD COMPLETE XT BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//