** WTIN20 DEMS 020600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 03-02-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA SOUTHWESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION. ** WTIN20 DEMS 030600 *** COR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 03-02-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA SOUTHWESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION. ** WTIN20 DEMS 030600 COR *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 03-02-2006 AAA TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA SOUTHWESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION. ** WTIO30 FMEE 030614 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 40/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/03 AT 0600 UTC : 20.9S / 39.9E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 22.0S/40.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 23.5S/42.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 25.2S/43.4E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 27.0S/45.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 29.1S/47.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 31.0S/50.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0+ AND CI=5.0+. DURING LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH THE REBUILT OF THE EYE . BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SST) SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 030621 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 40/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/03 AT 0600 UTC : 20.9S / 39.9E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 22.0S/40.8E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 24H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 23.5S/42.0E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 36H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 25.2S/43.4E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 48H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 27.0S/45.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 29.1S/47.3E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 31.0S/50.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DURING LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH THE REBUILT OF THE EYE . BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SST) SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.= ** WTIO24 FMEE 030608 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 033/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 950 HPA POSITION: 20.9S / 39.9E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/03 AT 18 UTC: 22.0S / 40.8E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/04 AT 06 UTC: 23.5S / 42.0E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: DURING LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH THE REBUILT OF THE EYE BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS, ACCELERATING. ** WTIO21 FMEE 030608 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 03/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 033/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 03/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (BOLOETSE) 950 HPA POSITION: 20.9S / 39.9E (VINGTS DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE-NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 300 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/80KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 03/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 22.0S / 40.8E, VENT MAX = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 04/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 23.5S / 42.0E, VENT MAX = 110 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'INTENSIFICATION A REPRIS AVEC A NOUVEAU LA FORMATION D'UN OEIL DURANT LES DERNIERES HEURES. L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE BOLETSE RESTE FAVORABLE ET L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME EST PREVUE SE POURSUIVRE. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 030608 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 40/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/03 AT 0600 UTC : 20.9S / 39.9E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 22.0S/40.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 23.5S/42.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 25.2S/43.4E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 27.0S/45.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 29.1S/47.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 31.0S/50.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0+ AND CI=5.0+. DURING LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH THE REBUILT OF THE EYE .. BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SST) SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 030613 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIF *************** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 03/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 033/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 03/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (BOLOETSE) 955 HPA POSITION: 20.9S / 39.9E (VINGTS DEGRES NEUF SUD ET TRENTE-NEUF DEGRES NEUF EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 7 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 300 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/80KT ET MER TRES GROSSE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 03/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 22.0S / 40.8E, VENT MAX = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. A 24H POUR LE 04/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 23.5S / 42.0E, VENT MAX = 110 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: L'INTENSIFICATION A REPRIS AVEC A NOUVEAU LA FORMATION D'UN OEIL DURANT LES DERNIERES HEURES. L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE BOLETSE RESTE FAVORABLE ET L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME EST PREVUE SE POURSUIVRE. LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE DEPLACER VERS LE SUD-EST EN ACCELERANT. ** WTIO24 FMEE 030613 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 033/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 955 HPA POSITION: 20.9S / 39.9E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 7 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/03 AT 18 UTC: 22.0S / 40.8E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. 24H, VALID 2006/02/04 AT 06 UTC: 23.5S / 42.0E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, CYCL. TROP. INTENSE. OTHER INFORMATIONS: DURING LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH THE REBUILT OF THE EYE BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS, ACCELERATING. ** WTIO30 FMEE 030614 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 40/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/03 AT 0600 UTC : 20.9S / 39.9E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 22.0S/40.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 23.5S/42.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 25.2S/43.4E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 27.0S/45.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 29.1S/47.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 31.0S/50.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0+ AND CI=5.0+. DURING LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH THE REBUILT OF THE EYE BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SST) SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. ** WTIO30 FMEE 030621 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 40/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/03 AT 0600 UTC : 20.9S / 39.9E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 22.0S/40.8E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. 24H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 23.5S/42.0E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. 36H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 25.2S/43.4E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. 48H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 27.0S/45.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 29.1S/47.3E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 31.0S/50.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DURING LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH THE REBUILT OF THE EYE BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SST) SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. ** WTIO30 FMEE 030731 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 40/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/03 AT 0600 UTC : 20.9S / 39.9E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 22.0S/40.8E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 24H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 23.5S/42.0E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 36H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 25.2S/43.4E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. . 48H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 27.0S/45.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 29.1S/47.3E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 31.0S/50.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DURING LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH THE REBUILT OF THE EYE . BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SST) SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 030731 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 40/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/03 AT 0600 UTC : 20.9S / 39.9E (TWENTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 22.0S/40.8E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 24H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 23.5S/42.0E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 36H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 25.2S/43.4E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL. .. 48H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 27.0S/45.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/05 18 UTC: 29.1S/47.3E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/06 06 UTC: 31.0S/50.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DURING LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED WITH THE REBUILT OF THE EYE .. BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND SST) SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. ** WTXS31 PGTW 030900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030600Z --- NEAR 20.9S 39.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 39.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 22.3S 41.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 24.0S 42.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.9S 44.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 28.2S 46.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 34.9S 52.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 030900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2S 40.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL, RAGGED EYE, AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW. TC 09S HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE FORWARD SPEED AND IS BEING STEERED BY A BUILDING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 48, AN APPROACHING MID- LATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL START TO INFLUENCE BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TC 09S. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVOR- ABLE HOWEVER, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 36 TO 48 WILL CAUSE TC 09S TO BEGIN RAPID WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW BY TAU 72 AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//