** WTIO30 FMEE 030028 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 39/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/03 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2S / 39.2E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 966 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/03 12 UTC: 21.2S/39.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/04 00 UTC: 22.3S/40.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 23.9S/41.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 25.6S/43.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 28.3S/45.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 31.0S/48.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0+ AND CI=4.5 THE BEGINING OF ACCELERATION SOUTHEASTWARDS STARETED DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT AS NOT BEEN CONFIRMED DURING LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWN AGAIN, WITH AN EYE WICH HARDLY CONSOLIDATES (BANDING EYE). BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL WINDSHEAR) SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 030028 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 39/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/03 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2S / 39.2E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 966 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/03 12 UTC: 21.2S/39.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/04 00 UTC: 22.3S/40.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 23.9S/41.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 25.6S/43.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 28.3S/45.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/06 00 UTC: 31.0S/48.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0+ AND CI=4.5 THE BEGINING OF ACCELERATION SOUTHEASTWARDS STARETED DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT AS NOT BEEN CONFIRMED DURING LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWN AGAIN, WITH AN EYE WICH HARDLY CONSOLIDATES (BANDING EYE). BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (VERTICAL WINDSHEAR) SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 030012 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 03/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 032/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 03/02/2006 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (BOLOETSE) 966 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2S / 39.2E (VINGTS DEGRES DEUX SUD ET TRENTE-NEUF DEGRES DEUX EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 3 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT LOCALEMENT JUSQU'A 300 MN DANS LES SECTEURS NORD ET SUD-EST. OURAGAN 65/70KT ET MER TRES FORTE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 03/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 21.2S / 39.9E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 04/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 22.3S / 40.8E, VENT MAX = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, LE DEPLACEMENT A ETE TRES LENT ET LE SYSTEME A MARQUE UNE PAUSE DANS L'INTENSIFICATION, AVEC UN OEIL EN BANDE QUI PEINE A SE CONSOLIDER. L'ENVIRONNEMENT DE BOLETSE RESTE FAVORABLE ET L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME EST PREVUE SE POURSUIVRE TANDIS QUE LE SYSTEME S'ACCELERE VERS LE SUD-EST. . ** WTIO24 FMEE 030012 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 03/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 032/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 03/02/2006 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 966 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2S / 39.2E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTORS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/03 AT 12 UTC: 21.2S / 39.9E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/04 AT 00 UTC: 22.3S / 40.8E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: DURING LAST HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS VERY SLOWLY MOVED, AND AS NOT INTENSIFYED, WITH A BANDING EYE WHICH HARDLY CONSOLIDATES. BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER AS IT STARTS TO TRACK AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 030300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 39.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 39.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 21.2S 40.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 22.4S 41.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.3S 42.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 26.4S 45.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 31.0S 50.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 39.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 022321Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH RENEWED DEEP CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE STORM CENTER AND WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE 12-HOUR STORM MOTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST, TC 09S IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MADAGASCAR. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS GIVEN FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, AND THE SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BY THE 36-HOUR FORECAST POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 34 FEET. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IS RESUMING A SIX HOUR WARNING CYCLE FOR THIS SYSTEM. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//