** WTIO30 FMEE 021225 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 37/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/02 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6S / 38.5E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 968 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/03 00 UTC: 20.0S/38.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/03 12 UTC: 20.2S/39.1E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/04 00 UTC: 21.7S/40.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 24.0S/42.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 26.5S/44.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 29.4S/46.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5- LATEST VISIBLE CANAL METEOSAT IMAGERY ANIMATIONS REVEAL A FORMING EYE, NOT ENTIRELY CONSOLIDATED YET. BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF ITS CURRENT POSITION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS APPROXIMATELY, BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST.= ** WTXS31 PGTW 021500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z --- NEAR 19.7S 38.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 38.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 20.0S 38.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 21.1S 38.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 22.8S 40.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.7S 41.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 021500Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 38.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SSMI AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY BETWEEN 020500Z AND 020530Z SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE, AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN REGIONS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND SOUTH AFRICA KEEPS THE SYSTEM FROM TRACKING POLEWARD. BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24, AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL BREAKDOWN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND ALLOW TC 09S TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, THE ANTICYCLONE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF MADAGASCAR WILL ALSO AID IN THE STEERING FLOW. THE INTENSITY OF TC 09S WILL PEAK IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF SUSTAINED OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, ONCE THE TROUGH APPROACHES AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT TO THE ANTICYCLONE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND TC 09S WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.// ** WTIO21 FMEE 021224 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 02/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. NUMERO: 030/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS D'OURAGAN DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 02/02/2006 A 1200 UTC. PHENOMENE: CYCLONE TROPICAL 8 (BOLOETSE) 968 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.6S / 38.5E (DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET TRENTE-HUIT DEGRES CINQ EST) A 1200 UTC DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 300 MN DANS LE DEMI CERCLE EST. OURAGAN 65 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A ENORME DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. TEMPETE 50/60 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 60 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 03/02/2006 A 00 UTC: 20.0S / 38.7E, VENT MAX = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. A 24H POUR LE 03/02/2006 A 12 UTC: 20.2S / 39.1E, VENT MAX = 75 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: BOLOETSE S'EST INTENSIFIE SIGNIFICATIVMENT AU COURS DES 24 DERNIERES HEURES. IL EST PREVU RESTER DANS LE VOISINNAGE DE SA POSITION ACTUELLE DURANT LES PROCHAINES 24 HEURES, AVANT DE SE DECALER ENSUITE PLUS FRANCHEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES ET L'INTENSIF ICATION EST PREVUE SE POURSUIVRE PENDANT ENCORE 36 A 48 HEURES. ** WTIO24 FMEE 021224 *** PAN PAN HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 030/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). HURRICANE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/02/2006 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 968 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6S / 38.5E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/03 AT 00 UTC: 20.0S / 38.7E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. 24H, VALID 2006/02/03 AT 12 UTC: 20.2S / 39.1E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BOLOETSE INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF ITS CURRENT POSITION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE DEEPENING IS EXPECTED TO GO ON OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOU RS. ** WTIO30 FMEE 021225 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 37/8/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/02 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6S / 38.5E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 968 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/03 00 UTC: 20.0S/38.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/03 12 UTC: 20.2S/39.1E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/04 00 UTC: 21.7S/40.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 24.0S/42.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 26.5S/44.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/05 12 UTC: 29.4S/46.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.5- LATEST VISIBLE CANAL METEOSAT IMAGERY ANIMATIONS REVEAL A FORMING EYE, NOT ENTIRELY CONSOLIDATED YET. BOLOETSE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF ITS CURRENT POSITION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS APPROXIMATELY, BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST.