** WTIO30 FMEE 020616 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/8/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/02 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6S / 38.6E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/02 18 UTC: 20.0S/38.8E, MAX WIND=060KT. 24H: 2006/02/03 06 UTC: 20.4S/39.0E, MAX WIND=070KT. 36H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 20.8S/39.2E, MAX WIND=075KT. 48H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 22.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=080KT. 60H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 23.6S/41.0E, MAX WIND=070KT. 72H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 25.2S/42.1E, MAX WIND=060KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 ; CI=4.0- LATEST TRMM MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (0016Z) CONFIRMS THE NICE BOLOETSE LOWER LAYER ORGANIZATION ; NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION DID NOT COMPLETELY CONSOLIDATE AROUD THE CENTRE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO START TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS ; AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO KEEP THIS DIRECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE DEEPENING COULD GO ON OVER THE NEXT 2 4 TO 48 HOURS. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 020616 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 02/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. NUMERO: 029/08 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE TEMPETE DEBUT DE VALIDITE: JEUDI 02/02/2006 A 0600 UTC. PHENOMENE: FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 8 (BOLOETSE) 980 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.6S / 38.6E (DIX-NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET TRENTE-HUIT DEGRES SIX EST) A 0600 UTC DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 3 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAINS DANS UN RAYON DE 200 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU 'A 300 MN DANS LE QUADRANT EST. TEMPETE 50/55 KT ET MER GROSSE A TRES GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE COUP DE VENT 35/45 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 40 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 80 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 02/02/2006 A 18 UTC: 20.0S / 38.8E, VENT MAX = 60 KT. A 24H POUR LE 03/02/2006 A 06 UTC: 20.4S / 39.0E, VENT MAX = 70 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: BOLOETSE SEMBLE AMORCER UNE TRAJECTOIRE LENTE EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST. LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT FAVORABLES ET L'INTENSIFICATION POURRAIT SE POURSUIVRE PENDANT ENCORE 24 A 48 HEURES. . ** WTIO24 FMEE 020616 *** SECURITE STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 02/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 029/08 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). STORM WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 02/02/2006 AT 0600 UTC. PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 980 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6S / 38.6E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 3 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE EASTERN SECTOR. STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2006/02/02 AT 18 UTC: 20.0S / 38.8E, MAX WIND = 60 KT. 24H, VALID 2006/02/03 AT 06 UTC: 20.4S / 39.0E, MAX WIND = 70 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: BOLOETSE SEEMS TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS SLOWLY. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE DEEPENING COULD GO ON OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 020621 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/8/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/02 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6S / 38.6E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/02 18 UTC: 20.0S/38.8E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/03 06 UTC: 20.4S/39.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 20.8S/39.2E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 22.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 23.6S/41.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 25.2S/42.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0- LATEST TRMM MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (0016Z) CONFIRMS THE NICE BOLOETSE LOWER LAYER ORGANIZATION ; NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION DID NOT COMPLETELY CONSOLIDATE AROUD THE CENTRE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO START TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS ; AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO KEEP THIS DIRECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE DEEPENING COULD GO ON OVER THE NEXT 2 4 TO 48 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 020621 CCA *** *************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 36/8/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/02 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6S / 38.6E (NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 160 SO: 160 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/02 18 UTC: 20.0S/38.8E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/03 06 UTC: 20.4S/39.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 20.8S/39.2E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 22.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 23.6S/41.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/05 06 UTC: 25.2S/42.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0- LATEST TRMM MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (0016Z) CONFIRMS THE NICE BOLOETSE LOWER LAYER ORGANIZATION ; NEVERTHELESS, CONVECTION DID NOT COMPLETELY CONSOLIDATE AROUD THE CENTRE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE EAST, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO START TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS ; AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO KEEP THIS DIRECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAVOURABLE AND THE DEEPENING COULD GO ON OVER THE NEXT 2 4 TO 48 HOURS. . ** WTXS31 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 19.6S 38.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 38.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.6S 39.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.9S 40.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 23.5S 41.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 25.3S 42.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 38.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOESTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A WELL DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 09S REMAINS IN A QUASISTATIONARY STEERING ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER IT HAS BEGUN TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE ANTICYCLONE SITUATED TO THE EAST WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR AND CAUSE TC 09S TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY OF TC 09S WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TAU 24 AS OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINED AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 09S WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 48 AND BEGIN TO QUICKLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z AND 030900Z.//