** WTIO30 FMEE 020033 ***


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER                 : 35/8/20052006

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8  (BOLOETSE)



2.A POSITION 2006/02/02 AT 0000 UTC :

19.3S / 38.6E

(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX

DEGREES EAST)



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS                : 4.0/4.0 /D  1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE               : 980 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT



6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):

30 KT       NE: 160   SE: 160   SO: 160   NO: 160

50 KT       NE: 030   SE: 030   SO: 030   NO: 030



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2006/02/02 12 UTC: 19.6S/38.9E, MAX WIND=065KT.

24H: 2006/02/03 00 UTC: 20.1S/39.3E, MAX WIND=075KT.

36H: 2006/02/03 12 UTC: 21.0S/39.8E, MAX WIND=080KT.

48H: 2006/02/04 00 UTC: 22.3S/40.5E, MAX WIND=075KT.

60H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 23.5S/41.5E, MAX WIND=070KT.

72H: 2006/02/05 00 UTC: 24.7S/42.6E, MAX WIND=060KT.



2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:

T=CI=4.0-

BOLOETSE HAS QUICKLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE 6 LAST HOURS, AND THE EYE

IN

EMBRYO THAT COULD BE DETECTED ON MW IMAGERY 37 GHZ (SSMI 1749Z)

EXISTS

NOW IN IR IMAGERY.

THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS AND SHOULD KEEP THIS

DIRECTION

ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING MID-UPPER LEVEL

RIDGE

BUILDING IN THE EAST.=




** WTIN20 DEMS 020600 ***




              TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

              ------------------------

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 02-02-2006 AAA

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE

BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

ISSUED AT 0600 UTC AAA



SOUTHWESTERLIES PREVAIL OVER THE INDIAN REGION.



RIDGE LINE PASSES AT 7 DEG. N OVER INDIAN REGION (.)