** WTIO30 FMEE 011834 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 34/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/01 AT 1800 UTC : 19.0S / 38.3E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/02 06 UTC: 19.2S/38.5E, MAX WIND=035KT. 24H: 2006/02/02 18 UTC: 19.5S/38.8E, MAX WIND=040KT. 36H: 2006/02/03 06 UTC: 20.2S/39.2E, MAX WIND=045KT. 48H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 21.3S/39.9E, MAX WIND=050KT. 60H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 22.5S/40.9E, MAX WIND=055KT. 72H: 2006/02/04 18 UTC: 23.6S/42.4E, MAX WIND=060KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES A RATHER STRONG WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND IS SLOW TO INTENSIFY. TRMM IMAGERY 1605Z ALLOWS TO LOCATE THE CENTRE RATHER PRECISELY. BOLOETSE SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS, ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STEERING MID LEVEL RIDGE.= ** WTXS31 PGTW 012100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 38.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 38.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 19.5S 38.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.8S 38.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.3S 39.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 21.2S 39.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 23.4S 41.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 012100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 38.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE LAST 18 HOURS INDICATE THAT TC 09S IS BEGINNING TO LOOP CYCLONICALLY. THE STORM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE COMPETING INFLUENCE OF RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE. A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY POLEWARD OF TC 09S IS NOT EXPECTED TO ALTER THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS. AS A SECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BY 48 HOURS, THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN, AND THE TC 09S SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//