** WTIO30 FMEE 011227 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 33/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/01 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1S / 38.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 PLUS /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 070 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/02 00 UTC: 18.9S/37.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/02/02 12 UTC: 18.9S/37.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/02/03 00 UTC: 20.0S/37.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 48H: 2006/02/03 12 UTC: 21.1S/38.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/04 00 UTC: 22.2S/39.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/04 12 UTC: 23.2S/40.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE SYSTEM AS BEEN RE-ANALYSED AT A LIGHLY WEAKER INTENSITY ACCORDING TO LAST DATA (HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK WINDS, QUIKSCAT SWATH BADLY RESOLVED, INORGANISED CONVECTION ON MICRO-WAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGERY). DEEP CONVECTION HARDLY ORGANIZES EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE, PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT SHOULD REMAIN ALMOSTATIONNARY WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS, INTENSYING SLOWLY, THEN CURVE SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEYOND.= ** WTXS31 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 19.1S 37.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 37.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 18.8S 37.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 19.3S 37.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 20.3S 37.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 21.4S 38.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 25.0S 40.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 37.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGES ON THE EAST AND WEST RESPECTIVELY. THE EASTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM BY TAU 24 AND 09S WILL BEGIN TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.// ** WTPS31 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 30.6S 175.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 30.6S 175.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 34.0S 175.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 31.4S 175.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM NORTH OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH PACIFIC. HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENTRAINMENT OF COLD AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 12 FEET.//