** WTIO30 FMEE 010621 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 32/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/01 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.0S / 38.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 PLUS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 060 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/01 18 UTC: 19.3S/37.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/02/02 06 UTC: 19.9S/37.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 36H: 2006/02/02 18 UTC: 20.6S/37.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/03 06 UTC: 21.4S/38.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/03 18 UTC: 22.3S/39.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/02/04 06 UTC: 23.7S/41.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 AND CI=3.0- IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, AND SSTS ARE AROUND 29AOC. MONSOON AND TRADES WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LIGHTLY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON INTENSIFYING, AND TRACK SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS, UNDER THE STEERING OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.= ** WTXS31 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 19.2S 38.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 38.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.9S 37.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.9S 36.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.6S 36.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.9S 37.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 25.0S 41.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 37.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO RIDGES ON THE EAST AND WEST RESPECTIVELY. THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM BY TAU 24, AS 09S BEGINS TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STORM CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN EXISTING OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 010900 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 012A CORRECTED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 19.2S 38.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 38.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 18.9S 37.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 18.9S 36.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 19.6S 36.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.9S 37.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 25.0S 41.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 37.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 09S REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO RIDGES ON THE EAST AND WEST RESPECTIVELY. THE EASTERN RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM BY TAU 24, AS 09S BEGINS TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STORM CONTINUES TO BENEFIT FROM A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN EXISTING OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: MISSTATEMENT OF DOMINANT WESTERN RIDGE VISE THE ACTUAL DOMINANT EASTERN RIDGE IN REMARKS.//