** WTSR20 WSSS 311800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO30 FMEE 010051 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/8/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/01 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.0S / 38.6E (TWENTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 060 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/01 12 UTC: 20.6S/37.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 24H: 2006/02/02 00 UTC: 21.0S/37.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/02 12 UTC: 21.3S/37.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/03 00 UTC: 21.6S/37.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/03 12 UTC: 22.1S/38.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/04 00 UTC: 22.6S/38.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- LAST MICRO-WAVES SATELLITE IMAGERY (TRMM AT 1701UTC AND SSMI AT 1822UTC) SEEMS TO SHOW A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MORE NORTHEASTERN THAN LOCATED IN THE PAST RSMC BULLETIN ISSUED AT 1800UTC. CENTER IS RELOCATED BUT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATED. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS BETTER ON THIS MICRO-WAVES IMAGERY AND BOLOETSE KEEPS ON REINTENSIFIYNG REGULARLY. LAST QUIKSCAT SWAT AT 1455UTC CONFIRMS THIS TREND IN SPITE OF MAXIMUM WINDS ARE OVERESTIMATED UNDER THE CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD (HELPED POLEWARDS BY WESTERLY WINDS PRESENT SOUTH OF 25S), AND SSTS ARE BEYOND 27C. MONSOON AND TRADES WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INCREASING CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON INTENSIFYING, AND TRACK SOUTHWARDS BEYOND 24 HOURS, UNDER THE STEERING OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER THE MASCARENES ISLANDS.= ** WTPS01 NFFN 010000 *** Gale Warning 001 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 01/0100 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone JIM [987hPa] centre was located near 26.4 South 173.1 East at 010000 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 26.4S 173.1E at 010000 UTC. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 20 knots and expected to decelerate further. Cyclone weakening. Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre decreasing to 40 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 150 miles of centre. Forecast position near 28.4S 173.9E at 011200 UTC and near 29.8S 174.1E at 020000 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI and TCWC Wellington. For RSMC Nadi: VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 032. FURTHER WARNINGS ON TC JIM WILL BE ISSUED BY WELLINGTON. ** WTPS01 NFFN 010000 *** Gale Warning 001 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 01/0100 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone JIM [987hPa] centre was located near 26.4 South 173.1 East at 010000 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 26.4S 173.1E at 010000 UTC. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 20 knots and expected to decelerate further. Cyclone weakening. Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre decreasing to 40 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 150 miles of centre. Forecast position near 28.4S 173.9E at 011200 UTC and near 29.8S 174.1E at 020000 UTC. All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI and TCWC Wellington. For RSMC Nadi: VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj. This warning cancels and replaces warning 032. FURTHER WARNINGS ON TC JIM WILL BE ISSUED BY WELLINGTON. ** WTPS11 NFFN 010000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI Feb 01/0121 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone JIM [987hPa] centre was located near 26.4 South 173.1 East at 010000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 20 knots and expected to decelerate further. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 45 knots, decreasing to 40 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 150 nautical miles of the centre. Dvorak analysis based on curved band, 0.45 on log10 yields a DT=2.5, PT=2.5 and MET =3.0. FT based on DT yielding T2.5/3.0/W2.05/24hrs. System continues to weaken. LLCC located just west of major convection. CIMMS also indicates system is running into increased environment. Cooler SSTs around the area should further aid in weakening the system. Mid level subtropical ridge to the south is is expected to slow down Jim significantly and eventually curve it westwards as a weak system. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPCICAL CYCLONE JIM. ** WTPS11 NFFN 010000 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 01/0121 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM [987HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4 SOUTH 173.1 EAST AT 010000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO DECELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 40 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND, 0.45 ON LOG10 YIELDS A DT=2.5, PT=2.5 AND MET =3.0. FT BASED ON DT YIELDING T2.5/3.0/W2.05/24HRS. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. LLCC LOCATED JUST WEST OF MAJOR CONVECTION. CIMMS ALSO INDICATES SYSTEM IS RUNNING INTO INCREASED ENVIRONMENT. COOLER SSTS AROUND THE AREA SHOULD FURTHER AID IN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN JIM SIGNIFICANTLY AND EVENTUALLY CURVE IT WESTWARDS AS A WEAK SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPCICAL CYCLONE JIM. ** WTPS11 NFFN 010000 *** TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI FEB 01/0121 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM [987HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4 SOUTH 173.1 EAST AT 010000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO DECELERATE FURTHER. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 40 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND, 0.45 ON LOG10 YIELDS A DT=2.5, PT=2.5 AND MET =3.0. FT BASED ON DT YIELDING T2.5/3.0/W2.05/24HRS. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. LLCC LOCATED JUST WEST OF MAJOR CONVECTION. CIMMS ALSO INDICATES SYSTEM IS RUNNING INTO INCREASED ENVIRONMENT. COOLER SSTS AROUND THE AREA SHOULD FURTHER AID IN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN JIM SIGNIFICANTLY AND EVENTUALLY CURVE IT WESTWARDS AS A WEAK SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPCICAL CYCLONE JIM. ** WTXS31 PGTW 010300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (BOLOETSE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 38.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 38.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 20.2S 38.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 20.7S 37.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 21.1S 36.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 21.7S 37.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 24.3S 39.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 38.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (BOLOETSE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A BROAD BUT WEAK 700 MB RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN THE NEARLY STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF THE STORM OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND REORIENT MERIDIONALLY, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SPEED TO THE SOUTHWEST FOLLOWED BY A SLOW TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STORM IS BENEFITING FROM A LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A DEVELOPING OUT- FLOW CHANNEL INTO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF MADAGASCAR WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTPS31 PGTW 010300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 25.7S 173.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 173.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 27.9S 174.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 29.3S 174.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 26.2S 173.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AS ITS STEERING BEGINS TO TRANSITION FROM THE ELONGATED NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST TO A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO MEET WARNING CRITERIA LONG ENOUGH TO BE STEERED NORTHWEST BY THE WESTERN RIDGE. HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LACK OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE EN- TRAINMENT OF COLD AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z.//