** WTIO30 FMEE 310001 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/8/20052006 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 (EX-BOLOETSE) 2.A POSITION 2006/01/31 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0S / 41.5E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/01/31 12 UTC: 18.8S/40.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2006/02/01 00 UTC: 19.9S/39.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/02/01 12 UTC: 20.5S/37.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/02/02 00 UTC: 21.1S/36.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/02/02 12 UTC: 21.9S/36.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/02/03 00 UTC: 22.9S/36.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CIRCULATION IS BAD DEFINED AND IS VERY APPROXIMATIVELY LOCATED. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FLUCTUATING BUT LOCALLY MODERATE. IT CONCERNS THE MOZAMBICAL CHANNEL EAST OF 38E BETWEEN 17S AND 25S BUT KEEPS ON OVER NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINES AND SOUTH TO 20S. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE POLARWARD HELPED BY STRONG WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF 25S. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED VEERING WESTWARDS AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. AT MEDIUM RANGE IT WOULD SHIP SOUTHEASTWARDS DUE TO THE REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO BUT ECMWF NWP MODEL FORECASTS A RAPID INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE MOZAMBICAL COASTLINE ON AND AFTER THE 02/02. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.= ** WTSR20 WSSS 301800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPS11 NFFN 310000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 31/0241 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 20.6 South 166.5 East at 310000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface report. Cyclone moving southeast at about 20 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots, decreasing to 70 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of the centre. System now appears to become sheared as continues it drifting southeast. CDO now begining to become detached from LLCC. Cyclone lies in northwest steering flow, north and a large baroclinic low near Norfolk island. Outflow restricted in SE quadrant. CIMMS indicates Jim is moving into an increased sheared environment to the south. Dvorak analysis based on CDO yields T4.5. PT=4.5 and MET =5.0. FT based on DT yielding T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24hrs. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass and cooler SSTs south of New Caledonia is expected to weaken Jim further. Global models generally agree on a southeast track with rapid weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 311200 UTC near 22.8S 168.9E mov SE at 15kt with 65kt close to the centre 24hrs valid at 010000 UTC near 25.0S 171.0E mov SE at 15kt with 50kt close to the centre OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 011200 UTC near 26.3S 172.2E mov SE at 14kt with 40kt close to the centre 48hrs valid at 020000 UTC near 27.3S 172.1E mov SSW at 05kt with 35kt close to the centre The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will be issued around 310800 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 310000 *** Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 31/0241 UTC 2006 UTC. Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 20.6 South 166.5 East at 310000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface report. Cyclone moving southeast at about 20 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots, decreasing to 70 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of the centre. System now appears to become sheared as continues it drifting southeast. CDO now begining to become detached from LLCC. Cyclone lies in northwest steering flow, north and a large baroclinic low near Norfolk island. Outflow restricted in SE quadrant. CIMMS indicates Jim is moving into an increased sheared environment to the south. Dvorak analysis based on CDO yields T4.5. PT=4.5 and MET =5.0. FT based on DT yielding T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24hrs. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass and cooler SSTs south of New Caledonia is expected to weaken Jim further. Global models generally agree on a southeast track with rapid weakening. FORECAST: 12hrs valid at 311200 UTC near 22.8S 168.9E mov SE at 15kt with 65kt close to the centre 24hrs valid at 010000 UTC near 25.0S 171.0E mov SE at 15kt with 50kt close to the centre OUTLOOK: 36hrs valid at 011200 UTC near 26.3S 172.2E mov SE at 14kt with 40kt close to the centre 48hrs valid at 020000 UTC near 27.3S 172.1E mov SSW at 05kt with 35kt close to the centre The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will be issued around 310800 UTC. ** WTPS11 NFFN 310000 *** PART 02 5.0. FT BASED ON DT YIELDING T4.5/5.0/S0.0/24HRS. INTERACTION WITH THE NEW CALEDONIA LANDMASS AND COOLER SSTS SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN JIM FURTHER. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH RAPID WEAKENING. FORECAST: 12HRS VALID AT 311200 UTC NEAR 22.8S 168.9E MOV SE AT 15KT WITH 65KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE 24HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC NEAR 25.0S 171.0E MOV SE AT 15KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE OUTLOOK: 36HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC NEAR 26.3S 172.2E MOV SE AT 14KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE 48HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC NEAR 27.3S 172.1E MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 35KT CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 310800 UTC. END PART 02 OF 02 ** WTPS11 NFFN 310000 *** PART 01 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI JAN 31/0241 UTC 2006 UTC. TROPICAL CYCLONE JIM [955HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6 SOUTH 166.5 EAST AT 310000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORT. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE. SYSTEM NOW APPEARS TO BECOME SHEARED AS CONTINUES IT DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. CDO NOW BEGINING TO BECOME DETACHED FROM LLCC. CYCLONE LIES IN NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW, NORTH AND A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW NEAR NORFOLK ISLAND. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED IN SE QUADRANT. CIMMS INDICATES JIM IS MOVING INTO AN INCREASED SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CDO YIELDS T4.5. PT=4.5 AND MET = END PART 01 ** WTPS31 PGTW 310300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/310152ZJAN2006// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 166.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 166.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 21.9S 169.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 23.8S 170.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 25.2S 171.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 25.8S 171.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 310300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 167.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 10P IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING HAS CHANGED, MOVING AWAY FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM OVER AUSTRALIA BUILDING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A FASTER THAN EX- PECTED FILLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RELAXATION OF THE MID LEVEL FLOW STEERING THE STORM, AND SHOULD SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. UKMET, NOGAPS, AND GFDN ALL SHOW STRONG ENOUGH RIDGING BUILDING IN TO TURN THE STORM BACK EQUATORWARD. COMPARISON OF MODEL FIELDS WITH SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS A FAIR MODEL ANALYSIS IN THESE DYNAMIC AIDS. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW PAST 24 DUE TO POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER AIDS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO MIXED. HOWEVER, LESS THAN FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND NON IDEAL SST SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM INTENSIFYING, ESPECIALLY ONCE THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z AND 010300Z.//